The value of cases

[Smoke]

For the second time now I'm hearing that idle bot farmers have cases as one of their big products. In his recent video about them, Zesty mentioned a very high figure of something like 2 million cases a year moved by one person. According to backpack.tf, the cosmetics from the 2023 summer case total at nearly half a million. They're still appearing at a steady pace, and looking at older cases, they'll keep appearing for years to come, so there's certainly still a massive stockpile of those cases. There's 2 more cases like that a year, so the 2 million figure is likely realistic.

What I don't get is the value of these cases. I couldn't be bothered to actually do the math, but I'm almost certain the average unbox value exceeds that of the key. And if it ever did, when those items were more expensive, it doesn't now, but those cases are clearly still being unboxed.

How is this profitable?

[Cat_Soldier]

When the update first drops, the value of cases are pretty high since the update is new and the gambling YouTubers have to buy 1000s of them for their case opening. Activating a lot of bot nets to gain the first cases and selling them while they are still new and shiny means they have a bigger chance of profit. Once the hype ends and the case value goes back to 3 cents many of these bots shut down while some still remain idling.

This is why whenever an update drops you see a massive player count increase that not only includes players who came back but also a bunch of botnets looking to farm for the new cases, and then after like 3 days all of the sudden those players disappear and we go back to regular player numbers

[Fireschlong #2Broke4MannUp]

Idling cases is probably not profitable, and idlers are just being delusional.
As for unboxing cases, it's not profitable either, but there is the benefit of the doubt of enjoying the unboxing experience (which isn't inherently wrong, contrary to popular belief. Money spent having fun is not money wasted). People who unbox for profit are being delusional though.

[Astyl]

Ursprungligen skrivet av lavalobster93:

Ursprungligen skrivet av Smoke:

I couldn't be bothered to actually do the map,

what does this mean

I think he meant to say math.

[Smoke]

Ursprungligen skrivet av Astyl:

Ursprungligen skrivet av lavalobster93:

what does this mean

I think he meant to say math.

that is correct

[Smoke]

Ursprungligen skrivet av Cat_Soldier:

When the update first drops, the value of cases are pretty high since the update is new and the gambling YouTubers have to buy 1000s of them for their case opening. Activating a lot of bot nets to gain the first cases and selling them while they are still new and shiny means they have a bigger chance of profit. Once the hype ends and the case value goes back to 3 cents many of these bots shut down while some still remain idling.

This is why whenever an update drops you see a massive player count increase that not only includes players who came back but also a bunch of botnets looking to farm for the new cases, and then after like 3 days all of the sudden those players disappear and we go back to regular player numbers

still doesn't explain why new items from these cases are still appearing

I haven't met a single unboxer, and these things are clearly still being opened en masse. The ones I see on youtube usually do their unboxing when the case rolls out.

[Smoke]

Ursprungligen skrivet av Fireschlong #2Broke4MannUp:

Idling cases is probably not profitable, and idlers are just being delusional.
As for unboxing cases, it's not profitable either, but there is the benefit of the doubt of enjoying the unboxing experience (which isn't inherently wrong, contrary to popular belief. Money spent having fun is not money wasted). People who unbox for profit are being delusional though.

I mean, with so many idling farm bots, such a massive quantity of items being created and how elaborate the whole system is, someone has to be making money. Unboxers seem to be a pretty rare breed, so I wouldn't attribute any significant quantity of created items to them.

[Zumo Nacho INC]

Ursprungligen skrivet av Smoke:

Ursprungligen skrivet av Cat_Soldier:

When the update first drops, the value of cases are pretty high since the update is new and the gambling YouTubers have to buy 1000s of them for their case opening. Activating a lot of bot nets to gain the first cases and selling them while they are still new and shiny means they have a bigger chance of profit. Once the hype ends and the case value goes back to 3 cents many of these bots shut down while some still remain idling.

This is why whenever an update drops you see a massive player count increase that not only includes players who came back but also a bunch of botnets looking to farm for the new cases, and then after like 3 days all of the sudden those players disappear and we go back to regular player numbers

still doesn't explain why new items from these cases are still appearing

I haven't met a single unboxer, and these things are clearly still being opened en masse. The ones I see on youtube usually do their unboxing when the case rolls out.

Probably some of them do this at this scale to get higher chances of obtaining an unusual or something like that, or sell the items that might come with the cases, like name tags and stuff like that

[Smoke]

Ursprungligen skrivet av Zumo Nacho INC:

Ursprungligen skrivet av Smoke:

still doesn't explain why new items from these cases are still appearing

I haven't met a single unboxer, and these things are clearly still being opened en masse. The ones I see on youtube usually do their unboxing when the case rolls out.

Probably some of them do this at this scale to get higher chances of obtaining an unusual or something like that, or sell the items that might come with the cases, like name tags and stuff like that

Doesn't matter if the average item value doesn't exceed the value of the key + the case, and it doesn't. That would only make sense for small time unboxers, and those people are rare. If you do it en masse, you're not doing it for the thrill. It turns into a game of numbers, and I just don't see how they could be on your side.