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Hats can indeed drop randomly for premium players (usually cheap ones), but only rarely and you don't get which ones you get. By trading, you can get exactly the items you want without having to play for several years.
A Mann Co. Supply Crate Key is what I would probably go for because you can use it as a mean of currency throughout trading. If you technically sort of want your money back, you can sell it on the community market.
if I like this cosmetic or something else using this key, well that's my only opportunity if I'm not going to pay again. BUT if it is the opposite, I would be forced to resell it at a higher price than the Mann co key