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I suppose it'd be what the buyer is willing to pay, though. Obviously if he can get the paint and the hat separately cheaper, he'd do that, but if it'd save time and money to just get them together, I'd think they'd jump on that pretty quickly. It's all about finding the right buyer at that point; everyone else will deem your item as worth a lot less.
That's the price sellers sell at. Buyers usually buy pink paint at 10-25% price, you'll be lucky to find one who offers you 50%. They hardly ever come by and when they do they typically get swamped with hats in a few days and stop buying
A key is 20 ref no sane person would buy something worth 8.66 ref max. Unless your hat has a nice craft number or is signed by pro players