how many crates to unbox unusuals? (suppoused to be x2 better chance)

[FEELING SENSATIONS]

after 4-5 of playing, i finally opened 3 crates cause i heard about all that better chance at unusual now, the loot overall worth like 3 refs lmao.
how many keys you spent (during this event) to acually get an unusual.
i'm broke af now btw, wasn't worth it

[OLDMAN🎅]

100

[Pakaku]

Unboxing multiple crates in a row doesn't affect your unusual unboxing chances. That's a gambling fallacy and it's dangerous to fall into.

[FEELING SENSATIONS]

let's cheer for our dumb asses throwing money at valve

[When the person brings end!]

It's speculated to be a 1% chance to unbox an unusual but now it's guessed to be a 2% chance. The best thing I unboxed in this halloween event was a strange flair (if only I got this earlier, a few weeks ago there was only 13 in existence).

[Marcvs Antonivs]

Every 2 unbox an unusual. You'll buy an island in no time.

[Cee]

56789987777543367569696969.333333 crates

[Pakaku]

Originally posted by Marcvs Antonivs:

Every 2 unbox an unusual. You'll buy an island in no time.

Or those particular unusuals will devalue themselves so fast, you're back to where you started.

By consequence, more non-unusuals are unboxed, and those start to quickly depreciate in price too. Oh well, at least that means the Heavy Tourism will become affordable fairly soon.

[OLDMAN🎅]

TF2 Crate Sim
http://www.gamesnewgames.com/games/tf2-crate-sim

[OLDMAN🎅]

$330.00 texas ten gallon unusual
TF2 Crate Sim

[Long Ago [Linux]]

The normal chance is 1:100, so 2X would be 1:50. But that does NOT mean that you will get one by opening 50 crates, since each time you open a crate there would be a 1:50 chance and luck may be against you.

[FEELING SENSATIONS]

Originally posted by Pakaku:

Unboxing multiple crates in a row doesn't affect your unusual unboxing chances. That's a gambling fallacy and it's dangerous to fall into.

that was all i needed to remember... if u knew...

[FEELING SENSATIONS]

has anyone of you got an unusal during this event?

[Constable Piss]

Normally it's around 1 out of 100, but since it's double, you would get 1 around every 50 crates

[Lil C]-[ew C]-[ew is ☂д☂]

I have been unboxing since 2010....doing the math aprox. would be more than 100 crates opened and no unusuals.
The end.

[rubyolpp]

Originally posted by Pakaku:

Unboxing multiple crates in a row doesn't affect your unusual unboxing chances. That's a gambling fallacy and it's dangerous to fall into.

Gambler's fallacy does not apply here.