Elite grade items, as uncommon as Unusuals?

[HHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOGGGGG]

I've noticed that elite grade items from any crate have incredibly low uncrate chances than what the offical TF2 wiki would have you believe. For example the Sucker Slug/Corona Australis from the Quarantined Collection Case are both listed to have an uncrate chance of "4.00%" which effectively gives you a 1/25 chance of uncrating one of these "elite" items. Not TOO unreasonable, keeps it rare but you have a half-decent chance of obtaining it at least. However after a bit of number-crunching myself, I pulled up some figures from backpack.tf of every item you could possibly obtain from the case and so far as of when i did these calculations 23/1/2017 this is what i got:

E = ELITE, A= ASSASSIN, C= COMMANDO, M= MERCENARY
-----------------------------------Exist----Strange----Unusual------Total:-------Chance:
E Sucker Slug----------------:608------87----------11--------------706---------0.66%----1/152
E Corona Australis----------:712------81----------18--------------811---------0.76%----1/132
A Starduster------------------:3536----482----------0--------------4018--------3.76%----1/27
A Giger Counter-------------:3573----462----------0---------------4035--------3.78%----1/27
C Shooting Star-------------:10038---1557--------0--------------11595------10.87%---too
C Captain Space Mann----:7467-----1105------154-------------8726-------8.18%-----lazy
C Rocket Operator.---------:6888-----913---------0---------------7801--------7.31%----2
M Life Support System----:10363----2502-------0---------------12865------12.06%--cal*
M Phobos Filter'-------------:17071----3748-------0---------------20819-----19.53%--the
M Final Frontiersman'-----:19028----3910--------0---------------22938------21.51%--rest
M Universal Translator.----:9505-----2132------640-------------12277------11.51%--.....
Total Unboxes:''-------------:88789---16979-----823------------106591+-- 99.93%

Stange Chance: 15.9%
Unusual Chance: 0.77%

-Btw: ------------------------------
NOTE: THIS IS ONLY WHAT BACKPACK.TF HAS RECORDED. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY MORE OF EACH ITEM OUT THERE IN THE MARKET THAT BACKPACK.TF HASN'T RECORDED HOWEVER THE SHEER NUMBER IT HAS RECORDED WILL GIVE US A GOOD IDEA OF WHAT THE REAL VALUES ARE ANYWAY.

-The final value of 99.93% is because i wanted to round to two decimal places. The missing 0.07 is seriously not important as its spread out over 11 items anyway... so if your really picky pretend theres an extra 0.006% more chance for each item k?

-Likely the Sucker Slug and Corona Australis have equal uncrate rates. Why less sucker slugs? good question....
----------------------------------------
-Fun fact how much $ valve made from this crate alone based on these values: $265,411+ (as of 23/1/2017)

So there we have it, as you can see. The chance to uncrate the elite items in this case anyway is definitely not 4%.

So now the unusual drop rate:
-Supposedly (according to the official TF2 wiki) and widely believed to be 1%
-I've seen some fourms where its been estimated to be 0.5% but for the sake of this post im gonna say its 1%, also i didn't bother saving the links to these threads so stuff this entire dot-point... why are you still reading this? shoo shoo!

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So with the data i provided the Elite item unbox chance is at is highest 0.76%,
However recently i encountered a reddit fourm of a user who also calculated the grade unbox chances, here is a link: https://www.reddit.com/r/tf2/comments/3dpj3c/psa_odds_of_unboxing_an_elite_weapon/
According to those odds; the elite unbox rate he proposed was 0.9%.

So if it is really true that the unusual unbox rate is 1%:
Then you have a lower chance of getting an elite grade item then an unusual hat. Thats based on my data and his.

I'd like to think that the odds of uncrating an elite grade item a little higher, possibly at 1%. either way however. Elite grade items have similar unbox chances to unusual hats. Why? keep in mind according to backpack.tf as of 23/1/2017 when i totaled up all unusual hats and taunts i got: 196,629 unusal hat and taunts in existence, that backpack could record anyway. Very likely theres more out there. Honestly to me 196K Unusuals out there dont make it very unusual. But thats just me. I honestly dont understand why elite grade items are so rare for? It doesn't need to be like this. I always wanted a Corona Australis and heck im getting one i dont give damn. But after calculating this, i was gonna try and unbox. Instead of buying it outright from the market or trading pure. But stuff these odds. I'll just buy it.

I got a very strong feeling that there are actually MUCH less Elite grade items out there then what are supposed the rare items: Unusual hats/Taunts. I mean there are only what? 20 elite grade items out there? i dunno and probably around 1,000-2000 of each? less> I haven't done the math myself yet but its probably something like, for every 7-6-5-4-etc. Unusuals theres 1 elite item. No wonder Unusual Potassium bonnetts/Captain Cardbeards are pretty much boderline non-existent. You essentially have to roll TWO 100 sided dice twice and land on say 1 on both dice to get an Elite Unusual all at the cost of one key and one crate.

I dont like these odds at all. I really wish elite grade items weren't so damn rare and so unlikely to be unboxed. Normal cosmetic items dont need to be so rare, just because they've got "Elite" shoved in front of them doesn't have to mean there has to be so little chance of obtaining them. Also as demonstrated by the sucker slug. Just because an item is rare doesn't automatically mean its gonna be expensive. If you really wanted to you can pick up a standard sucker slug for less then 1 key... Theres no need for these elite grade items to be as rare as Unusuals! I would love to actually see an elite unbox chance of 4% that be reasonable enough in my eyes. But honestly.... i really dont see a need for a normal cosmetic item or reskin to be so unlikely to obtain.

[JADEY]

tl:dr, all I read was TF2 wiki and somethign about 1% unusuals. Join my blog post, we re open to any blogs, epescially Tf2

[trash]

Originally posted by ♕๖ۣۜHyper Corona๖ۣۜ♕:

But honestly.... i really dont see a need for a normal cosmetic item or reskin to be so unlikely to obtain.

valve does
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ON-7v4qnHP8

[HHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOGGGGG]

Lul, that vid

[Brock]

Funny Story I got a Strange Sucker Slug and now knowing it was the chance of an unusual is just mind blowing





(Add a Wow meme in there)

[Appera]

It hurts when I am trying to unbox the unusual corona australis

[Flary]

Originally posted by Appera:

It hurts when I am trying to unbox the unusual corona australis

2017 post ("necro")