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Actually if you combine lots of crab pots with some recyclers, you end up with a bunch of coal driftwood and trash both have a chance to return coal. I have over 400 coal in a chest where I store my stuff from recycling.
Sometimes you gotta play for max profit, and sometimes you gotta roleplay a bee farmer or a lumberjack who gets his money only from trees or a flower farmer. It's those latter 3 options that would have someone play for longer than a few game years.
You also gotta get stuff to put in the kegs. Like honey. You probably won't have access to ancient fruit or starfruit in the summer of your first year. Hops is an option too. But the point is kegs are only part of the process.
Purchasing values of the building materials, it requires about 114,150 gold to buy their way to a semi-maximized single flower honey farm (38 Bee houses, I know that the prices rise in Y2, and instead of accounting for the maple syrup itself, I accounted for a number of tappers to acquire 38 Bee houses before the fairy rose was fully blossomed. It was about 13 by Summer 8.) I also know that if you really squeeze in, you can get another 6 Bee Houses, but I like my Honey Donut. Assuming you only get 1 season of fairy rose honey before winter hits, you would earn about 129,200 gold by Winter hits Y1. This means you just about break even on the costs in the first 20 days you got the honey, and then it is (mostly) pure profits from there.
The second argument is for Maintenance costs, after all of the original costs have been accrued, what does it take to make this machine run in perpetuity? One flower a season, plus a speed-gro in fall. In total, the cost of all of these from Pierre for the year combined is 430 gold.
NOTE: I do not factor out the expenses before dividing by them in my ROI equations. Anything below 100% for ROI in my equations is a net loss, and anything above is a net profit.
First year, the total profit margin (for only the fall season) would be about 113.18% of costs, so it isn't a great investment, assuming we only delegate the costs to that season and that season alone. If we ended the game at Y1 S4 D28 it would be considered incredibly underpowered.
Now for the next year we only match the costs accrued that year to our honey farm. In a year, Without the Artisan Profession, also accounting for the flower's sales at the end of the season and the Wild Honey made before the flower was grown, and turned the Wild Honey into Mead (Keg Costs not Included anywhere here), you would make 291840 gold, or about %67869.77 profit. Now THATS a good profit margin
But in the business world, accountants depreciate costs over the lifespan of the asset. So lets do that and keep the small maintenance costs in their years. For starters, the true fixed asset cost is about 300 less than the setup cost, as the setup also included the fairy rose and Speed-Gro for that season too. So, we have a depreciable amount of 113,850, I am going to assume Y3 is the end and Y1 S3 is the start (because as another comment pointed out, you wont play for more than a few years,) and we will be using straight line depreciation (Constant depreciation, over the full lifespan of the asset.) We will also assume that the Winters, despite not producing honey, count as a season to depreciate.
The results? Y1: Expenses- 23070 gold. Revenue- 129200 gold. ROI- 560%. Y2&3 (Same calculation applies to both): Expenses- 45970 gold. Revenues- 291840. ROI- 634.85%.
So the question: Is Honey Overpowered? Depends on how you slice it, and how long you play for. It is an immense setup cost, but a trivial maintenance cost.
Another note about all of this: These costs can be reduced by getting the materials yourself. Like you dont need to buy every single piece of Coal from Clint, or every wood from Robin, but because those are grounded metrics in game, that can be used as a backup if you fall short on your quotas, they make a good ruler for calculations.
Yet another note: The Artisan profession is great for making that maintenance cost seem even more trivial than it already is. Granted, Kegs would also benefit from this too, just not in the maintenance oriented way.
Final Note I Swear: It is incredibly hard to measure how much Starfruit Wine is going to be with my method, as it has so many unforeseen costs. Like how the Travelling Cart isn't a reliable vendor of Starfruit seeds, or how you would have to pay 42,500 gold just to have the ability to reliably acquire Starfruit seeds, or how it is a plant that doesn't have multiple harvests so you have to buy the seeds each time you do this plan. Or the fact that I dont have any presumptions of when the kegs need to be done by, ergo I dont have a reliable method for telling how many tappers you need. Additionally, 1000 starfruit seeds cost 400,000 for a crop that if we are measuring by the same time constraint here of "Y1 Goals" then it is incredibly difficult to overcome that mountain. Honey being a Y1 Goal was difficult enough on a 2 player server I am running, and that is worth approximately 1/4 of the costs, and an extra half a season of growth. To achieve an approximate for Y1 with Starfruit Kegs, you would need about 9 people all working together to get a Y1 Starfruit Keg Farm if the difficulty is the same. Good Luck in the short run! Incredibly high prosperity in the long run. Even if Starfruit Wine is better, Honey is not as bad as some commenters would like to make you think it is.