Physical Aurora edition pre-order canceled by store

[VinZOV]

Just a quick question,

Are there folks out there that pre-ordered the Aurora edition in a retail store?
Because I just got a email that told me that they had to cancel my pre-order because the publisher will not deliver the aurora edition.

[UncertainZero]

It's possible the stores are worried about lawsuits. If they advertised a steam key but the physical box won't have one, they would be liable for that. In addition, given the Epic key is cheaper than the steam key was, one could argue they swapped in cheaper goods in place of what was advertised.

It's also possible they don't want to deal with a massive number of returns from people who were expecting a steam key but didn't get one.

[Deaf]

If they for real delivering EGS Key, they obviously tryin to fake those sold copies numbers by telling "Selling Metro Exodus on EGS was a huge success" xD lier lier plans for ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥

[GM Pax]

Originally posted by MancSoulja:

Let's just take a moment to consider just how much money Epic must of paid to make Deep Silver make such a monumental tit of themselves

Oh, I already have. In great detail, even:

I guarantee you that Deep Silver is going to LOSE money from this move. (Where, by "lose", I actually mean "not make as much".)

Steam price is $60 .... 70% of that is $42;

Epic (U.S.) price is $50 ... 88% of that is $44;

Every 1 lost sale on Steam, negates the extra money from 21 sales through Epic.

...

If their sales drop by just five percent, they will lose money (a not insignificant amount).

A 15% or larger drop in sales numbers will be catastrophic.

Let's make a few assumptions. Two million copies - if they'd stayed with Steam - giving them a baseline gross of of $120,000,000US. Please note, Metro 2033 Redux sold 1.5 million copies, so this is not an unreasonable guess as to Exodus' potential sales numbers.

Steam charges 30% of $10M, 25% of $40M, and 20% of $70M, for a total of $27M, leaving $93M in Deep Silver's hands.

With Epic, well ...

If they lose NO sales (which is so improbable that it defies belief), they sell 2M copies for $100M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $88M, which is $5M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 5% sales, they sell 1.9M copies for $95M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $83.6M, which is $9.4M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 10% sales, they sell 1.8M copies for $90M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $79.2M, which is $13.8M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 15% sales, they sell 1.7M copies for $85M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $74.8M, which is $18.2M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 20% sales, they sell 1.6M copies for $80M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $70.4M, which is $22.6M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

I think 10% is a decent guesstimate, which means Deep Silver would be planning on leaving nearly fourteen million dollars on the table. And Epic must have offered them something of at least equal value, to induce them to do that.

But no matter how you look at it, because of that reduction in price, DEEP SILVER IS GOING TO GET LESS MONEY THAN IF THEY HAD JUST LEFT WELL ENOUGH ALONE ...

...

Well. That would all be true, _IF_ it were the whole story. I'm pretty sure Epic Games has given Deep Silver a multi-million dollar payment to do this, so they might wind up breaking even ... even if they do not lose a SINGLE sale.

But they are certainly _NOT_ going to keep more money this way.

[hearwade]

Doing a bit of Game Theory on the issue reveals several possible scenarios.. None of which seem worth the trouble...except one...

[RestedPandy]

Originally posted by GM Pax:

Originally posted by MancSoulja:

Let's just take a moment to consider just how much money Epic must of paid to make Deep Silver make such a monumental tit of themselves

Oh, I already have. In great detail, even:

I guarantee you that Deep Silver is going to LOSE money from this move. (Where, by "lose", I actually mean "not make as much".)

Steam price is $60 .... 70% of that is $42;

Epic (U.S.) price is $50 ... 88% of that is $44;

Every 1 lost sale on Steam, negates the extra money from 21 sales through Epic.

...

If their sales drop by just five percent, they will lose money (a not insignificant amount).

A 15% or larger drop in sales numbers will be catastrophic.

Let's make a few assumptions. Two million copies - if they'd stayed with Steam - giving them a baseline gross of of $120,000,000US. Please note, Metro 2033 Redux sold 1.5 million copies, so this is not an unreasonable guess as to Exodus' potential sales numbers.

Steam charges 30% of $10M, 25% of $40M, and 20% of $70M, for a total of $27M, leaving $93M in Deep Silver's hands.

With Epic, well ...

If they lose NO sales (which is so improbable that it defies belief), they sell 2M copies for $100M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $88M, which is $5M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 5% sales, they sell 1.9M copies for $95M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $83.6M, which is $9.4M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 10% sales, they sell 1.8M copies for $90M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $79.2M, which is $13.8M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 15% sales, they sell 1.7M copies for $85M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $74.8M, which is $18.2M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 20% sales, they sell 1.6M copies for $80M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $70.4M, which is $22.6M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

I think 10% is a decent guesstimate, which means Deep Silver would be planning on leaving nearly fourteen million dollars on the table. And Epic must have offered them something of at least equal value, to induce them to do that.

But no matter how you look at it, because of that reduction in price, DEEP SILVER IS GOING TO GET LESS MONEY THAN IF THEY HAD JUST LEFT WELL ENOUGH ALONE ...

...

Well. That would all be true, _IF_ it were the whole story. I'm pretty sure Epic Games has given Deep Silver a multi-million dollar payment to do this, so they might wind up breaking even ... even if they do not lose a SINGLE sale.

But they are certainly _NOT_ going to keep more money this way.

Excellent analysis of it.

On top of the potential (well let's be honest, certain at this stage) sales losses there's the huge backlash and loss of goodwill with their fanbase.

I wouldnt' even like to try and put a value on that and it's likely going to bite them on any future titles related to Metro or not.

All in all they seem to have made a short term decision to take a lump sum payment without looking at the long term consequences. I don't even think Epic's guaranteed sales volume scheme is going to help them as I'd be shocked if they'd be willing to guarantee any more than a few tens or hundreds of thousands of copies at most (If they do they've far more money than sense).

[NeXuS23]

Originally posted by Rectumrover:

Originally posted by NeXuS23:

I now really wonder if they really informed all distributors and stores in the world, because I didn't get any SMS (usual way for them to tell such stuff) from them and I could still pre-order from both big local games stores.

The same also for all the mixed stores that sell games only besides books and other stuff. I could imagine this is gonna be a informational and logistic disaster now and I doubt that really every last store will get the info in time.

Well, curious as I am, I went online and looked up a few stores here in Holland but they where all sold out. Just hope you will get your copy though. Could been a screwup from the store where I pre-orderd but usualy the deliiver on time and send pre-orders in time without any problems.

Probably also depends how the logistics are organized. Here some simply order big amounts for stock no matter the amount of pre-orders (because they can simply send back if they sell not all) but others order exactly as many as they got pre-orders for in their various branches.

And then there are the big distributors that order pallets of for their immense stocks to be able to fulfill all the little local store orders.

So what they must do is to inform the big distributors first, so that they can cancel or call-back all the packages from the various little stores that ordered by them. And then also inform all the other bigger stores that perhaps bypassed the distributors for their orders.

Also I know that most stores get their stuff up to 5-10 days before release, because it's not the first time i did get my package handed out 1-2 weeks before release (yes, this breaks street date, but is very common for some stores, especially for console packages). So depending when they sent those pallets out and when the stores got their stuff, time could be a problem now.

Well, no matter what, I guess Deep Silver is gonna end up sitting on pallets of unsold PC Special Edition Packages. 🤣🤣🤣

[VinZOV]

Originally posted by GM Pax:

Originally posted by MancSoulja:

Let's just take a moment to consider just how much money Epic must of paid to make Deep Silver make such a monumental tit of themselves

Oh, I already have. In great detail, even:

I guarantee you that Deep Silver is going to LOSE money from this move. (Where, by "lose", I actually mean "not make as much".)

Steam price is $60 .... 70% of that is $42;

Epic (U.S.) price is $50 ... 88% of that is $44;

Every 1 lost sale on Steam, negates the extra money from 21 sales through Epic.

...

If their sales drop by just five percent, they will lose money (a not insignificant amount).

A 15% or larger drop in sales numbers will be catastrophic.

Let's make a few assumptions. Two million copies - if they'd stayed with Steam - giving them a baseline gross of of $120,000,000US. Please note, Metro 2033 Redux sold 1.5 million copies, so this is not an unreasonable guess as to Exodus' potential sales numbers.

Steam charges 30% of $10M, 25% of $40M, and 20% of $70M, for a total of $27M, leaving $93M in Deep Silver's hands.

With Epic, well ...

If they lose NO sales (which is so improbable that it defies belief), they sell 2M copies for $100M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $88M, which is $5M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 5% sales, they sell 1.9M copies for $95M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $83.6M, which is $9.4M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 10% sales, they sell 1.8M copies for $90M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $79.2M, which is $13.8M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 15% sales, they sell 1.7M copies for $85M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $74.8M, which is $18.2M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 20% sales, they sell 1.6M copies for $80M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $70.4M, which is $22.6M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

I think 10% is a decent guesstimate, which means Deep Silver would be planning on leaving nearly fourteen million dollars on the table. And Epic must have offered them something of at least equal value, to induce them to do that.

But no matter how you look at it, because of that reduction in price, DEEP SILVER IS GOING TO GET LESS MONEY THAN IF THEY HAD JUST LEFT WELL ENOUGH ALONE ...

...

Well. That would all be true, _IF_ it were the whole story. I'm pretty sure Epic Games has given Deep Silver a multi-million dollar payment to do this, so they might wind up breaking even ... even if they do not lose a SINGLE sale.

But they are certainly _NOT_ going to keep more money this way.

Please do not forget that we in Europe are still paying 59.95 euro thats 68.80 USD And i believe in GBP its also around 68 USD

[GM Pax]

Originally posted by NeXuS23:

So what they must do is to inform the big distributors first, so that they can cancel or call-back all the packages from the various little stores that ordered by them. And then also inform all the other bigger stores that perhaps bypassed the distributors for their orders.

No.

This close to launch, they aren't issuing any recalls.

Remembe, exclusivity deals are not something that happens overnight, or in only a few days. Negotiating this, setting it all up, took several weeks at least.

So, all those retail boxes ALREADY have an Epic key in them, and have the Epic logo on the box.

Stores that are cancelling, don't want the risk of being slammed for a bait-and-switch by irate customers. Easiest just to cancel the pre-order entirely, and completely sidestep the whole mess that Deep Silver has plunged them into.

[NeXuS23]

Originally posted by Rectumrover:

Originally posted by GM Pax:

Oh, I already have. In great detail, even:

I guarantee you that Deep Silver is going to LOSE money from this move. (Where, by "lose", I actually mean "not make as much".)

Steam price is $60 .... 70% of that is $42;

Epic (U.S.) price is $50 ... 88% of that is $44;

Every 1 lost sale on Steam, negates the extra money from 21 sales through Epic.

...

If their sales drop by just five percent, they will lose money (a not insignificant amount).

A 15% or larger drop in sales numbers will be catastrophic.

Let's make a few assumptions. Two million copies - if they'd stayed with Steam - giving them a baseline gross of of $120,000,000US. Please note, Metro 2033 Redux sold 1.5 million copies, so this is not an unreasonable guess as to Exodus' potential sales numbers.

Steam charges 30% of $10M, 25% of $40M, and 20% of $70M, for a total of $27M, leaving $93M in Deep Silver's hands.

With Epic, well ...

If they lose NO sales (which is so improbable that it defies belief), they sell 2M copies for $100M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $88M, which is $5M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 5% sales, they sell 1.9M copies for $95M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $83.6M, which is $9.4M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 10% sales, they sell 1.8M copies for $90M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $79.2M, which is $13.8M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 15% sales, they sell 1.7M copies for $85M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $74.8M, which is $18.2M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

If they lose 20% sales, they sell 1.6M copies for $80M gross, of which Deep Silver gets to keep $70.4M, which is $22.6M less than they'd have received staying with Steam;

I think 10% is a decent guesstimate, which means Deep Silver would be planning on leaving nearly fourteen million dollars on the table. And Epic must have offered them something of at least equal value, to induce them to do that.

But no matter how you look at it, because of that reduction in price, DEEP SILVER IS GOING TO GET LESS MONEY THAN IF THEY HAD JUST LEFT WELL ENOUGH ALONE ...

...

Well. That would all be true, _IF_ it were the whole story. I'm pretty sure Epic Games has given Deep Silver a multi-million dollar payment to do this, so they might wind up breaking even ... even if they do not lose a SINGLE sale.

But they are certainly _NOT_ going to keep more money this way.

Please do not forget that we in Europe are still paying 59.95 euro thats 68.80 USD And i believe in GBP its also around 68 USD

Hey here I pay $114-120 for my Aurora Edition depending if for PC or XboxOneX/PS4.

[GM Pax]

I'm not forgetting those non-U.S. prices. I just don't know what they are, nor what they were under Steam. Nor do I have the knowledge needed to even attempt a reasonable guess as to what sort of losses in sales figures might be caused by the new pricing scheme. I understand for most people outside the U.S., the price went UP - which means even more lost sales, I just won't hazard a guess as to how MANY more.

But I have a firm handle on pricing in my own country, so I was willing to take a stab at it. Honestly, I feel like they'll lose more than 10% of U.S. sales, but even losing ZERO sales here, looks like it's going to be a bad deal for them, so ...

[NeXuS23]

Originally posted by GM Pax:

Originally posted by NeXuS23:

So what they must do is to inform the big distributors first, so that they can cancel or call-back all the packages from the various little stores that ordered by them. And then also inform all the other bigger stores that perhaps bypassed the distributors for their orders.

No.

This close to launch, they aren't issuing any recalls.

Remembe, exclusivity deals are not something that happens overnight, or in only a few days. Negotiating this, setting it all up, took several weeks at least.

So, all those retail boxes ALREADY have an Epic key in them, and have the Epic logo on the box.

Stores that are cancelling, don't want the risk of being slammed for a bait-and-switch by irate customers. Easiest just to cancel the pre-order entirely, and completely sidestep the whole mess that Deep Silver has plunged them into.

No of course they not gonna recall the steam key packages(which probably didn't exist anyway) to exchange with epic key packages. But they now need to recall all those packages with epic keys in it or they are gonna be sent back anyway, first the stores sent back and then the distributors will send back their pallets. 🤣

[VinZOV]

[quote

Hey here I pay $114-120 for my Aurora Edition depending if for PC or XboxOneX/PS4. [/quote]
On o, sorry man, i was refering to the price on the epic store. I paid 85 euro for the aurora edition that's about 98 USD


edit: erm somthing went wrong with the quote i guess

[NeXuS23]

Here btw. proofs that they still allow pre-orders of PC packages with steam keys here:

1. https://i.imgur.com/cbytqu9.jpg
2. https://i.imgur.com/kzjgHDN.jpg

[Wraithverge]

Originally posted by MancSoulja:

Let's just take a moment to consider just how much money Epic must of paid to make Deep Silver make such a monumental tit of themselves.

Publishers don't like taking risks in the first place and this is a ridiculous one, so the payoff must of been something to behold.

of course,
I'm quite certain that in case of having lost millions of sales, the money from epic should cover the losses almost completely or even surpass the losses.

[NeXuS23]

Originally posted by Nope:

Originally posted by Rectumrover:

2. Lots of gamers wont buy the game at least not on PC what will lead to disapointing sales on the pc market as opposed to the console marked.

Here the little problem with this one
The older titles of your was selling really well but then in your newest title you decided to change something that is affecting a lot of your fanbase, suddenly the sales of your new title isn't going well because of that change, would you really think it's because of your customers that are at fault here or because of that decision?
Even a idiot would realize what the problem is unless they're mentally challenged

But realizing it or admitting it are still two different pairs of shoes for them. 😂