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I don't know much about the JP population, but you have 4 data centers to try out. I don't know if that rule applies to JP as they have a slightly different way of doing things but in NA a good tell if it's populated is looking at the party finder, and if there's a sizeable amount of parties looking for people then it is populated. I'd try traveling to all 4 of them and compare the party finder size, or doing some research online about JP data center population. On a normal population, a low level MSQ queue should pop within 15 if you're a DPS, 5 minutes if you'Re a tank, instantly or almost instantly if you'Re a healer. So another way to try to mitigate this is simply queue those as a healer.
More info on data center travel https://na.finalfantasyxiv.com/lodestone/playguide/contentsguide/datacentertravel/
You're getting them in your roulette because some poor sprout has been sitting waiting for their queue to fill for 3 hours.
I would believe that if it was kinda rare, but when it's almost every day I don't think that's true.
A couple weeks ago I manually queued into a Nier raid to get some glam and I only waited about 10minutes as a DPS, which is standard.