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I have a theory I don't know if you'll like it.
I found my save file and after playing it through a second time I backed it up and ran over the encounter with the spirits several times listening to what they said and tried all combinations on this save I collected all of the Adler letters and anomolies, I've come to a rather gloomy conclusion.
No matter what you do. Alex is Certainly dead, Clarissa is also Certainly dead.
Depending on what you do Jonas is also possibly dead (If you got him to listen to his "mum" he survives)
Ren and Nona May survive but it's also possible for them to be possessed and functionally killed.
Once you pass through the gate it's IMPOSSIBLE for you to return (Except maybe via possession) this is stated outright by both the Ghosts and Margret Adler that you just *can't* come back in a physical form.
IF you close the gate quickly in the spirit realm you see Alex on one side of a ravine, On the other you see Nona Ren and Jonas They are demonic and possessed but they return to normal and vanish. Leaving you trapped alone. Clarissa is with you in the rift already possessed. The ghosts will mourn you explain your trapped with them forever now and say somthing like "we're sorry"
Then you get your happy ending scene.
If you speak with the ghosts you see symbols appear around the exit with the rift that leads back Possibly indicating your friends begin possessed one by one.
If you continue to speak with them you get taken to another scene, You can talk to the ghosts where you have to answer with information found in the letters if you answer incorrectly they say somthing like "Screw it you keep your nature we will keep ours" I think they say this because they've already possessed your friends and are done speaking with you leaving you to die.
You then get your happy ending scene.
If you answer correctly they freak out remember themselves and become paranoid there nature changes but they are also apologetic for what they did but there isn't any way back.(I will do a couple more loops on this see if I can spot anything else intresting)
You then get your happy ending scene.
Aside from that the ghosts also say, prior to the rift They COULD move on (into oblivion) but choose not to, instead they experience the last night of there deaths over and over just like Alex is. They say all they want is more time.
You get your happy ending, This is alex making up her ending giving herself a chance to move on if you can accept it and not look to deeply then Alex can pass on in peace regardless of wheather anyone survived. If your like me and feel a need to pick at it you get stuck looping over again.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1B_1EQQ3WqaHNWtKr35fty4oosAO2SjvkvpEbOjOitRc/edit
The Kanaloa soldiers, Maggie, and Michael are the only characters to have canonically died. You could theorize about who else could have died where and how and if they're still dead or whatever, but for those characters it has been explicitly stated that they died (in the Kanaloa's case, it's implied that they died multiple times). Anything else is beyond the canon.
Alex, Clarissa, and Jonas are not dead, and they do not die. Neither do Nona and Ren. However, it can be argued that Clarissa and Ren could have *potentially* died.
At one point in the game, you are shown an instance of Ren drowning/falling/"stopping" during a time loop. There are two theories for this: it is either a dreamscape-like experience where you are shown alternate outcomes, or a quick tear to a separate alternate reality opened during the time loop to show you that an *alternate* Ren died in an *alternate* timeline. But either way, the Ren in the "main" universe never dies and never died.
In Clarissa's case, you are shown an instance where Clarissa jumps from a window. At this point, Alex and Jonas are not in a time loop, but they had just gotten out of one. Clarissa falls, and is thought to have "died", but when you climb down to check on her, she's already gone. I think this has more to do with her body being in use by the "ghosts" than the time anomalies.
As for the rest of the characters, it's fairly straightforward.
Alex and Anna have undergone basically the same phenomenon, just under *slightly* different circumstances. Anna was taken unwillingly, whereas Alex was willing to be taken in exchange for her friends' escape. This doesn't erase the fact that neither of them have actually died. The Kanaloa soldiers were first killed by the implosion of the nuclear reactor, which then ejected them from our dimension. Anna and Alex, however, were simply absorbed into the ridge. They are still alive and... "well". Just alive in a parallel dimension.
Jonas and Nona don't die either. When you let Jonas listen to his mom on the radio, he's ejected from the dimension temporarily, but you find out later on the ferry home that he had "gone back" to his memories of watching TV with his dad (also, in a single frame during the "glitch" before Jonas disappears, you can see a beautiful park, which is supposedly the park that Jonas speaks of early on in the game.)
Nona is... hardly touched on in the game. One of the scenes that was removed (?) from the final game is a scene where Nona is possessed (Alex asks "Does it... hurt?", and then Nona's eyes glow red and the screen vibrates.) Nona is shown to be possessed at certain parts of the game, but as far as I know, she's the only character who doesn't have her own "possession scene" (Ren at Relay Point, Jonas at US Army RCS, Clarissa at Fort Milner, and Alex at several parts, though you don't actually *see* her being possessed, you see what *she* sees when she's possessed.) There is very little that can be said about Nona at the moment. Regardless, there is nothing that has implied that she has died at any point.
Maggie, obviously, died three days before the events of the game (or, at least, is *said to have* died three days before the events of the game.)
Oh, and, you're stuck in a loop because Alex made the decision to sacrifice herself many, many, many loops before. She's stuck in this loop supposedly until we solve the ARG.
However, evidence has surfaced that brings up the theory that Alex may not be the only one in danger in context of the ARG...
Anywho, I keep track of all of the Tweets originating from the Twitter account associated with the ARG here[docs.google.com].
I also have a document where I've recorded every bit of information about all of the background characters that have been mentioned at any point in the game (gathered from anomalies, adler notes, and character dialogue) here[docs.google.com].
And also a slideshow containing all the information I could find about all of the landmarks of Edwards Island (gathered from the guided tour station 102.3) here[docs.google.com].
Welcome aboard, if you decide to join us for the search!
Also having problems with that fact.
It's not real. Alex never *really* left Edwards Island. She's still trapped there.
I gave my explaination although it's been poo-poo'd the specific Technicallity of death or alternate realities aside the ghosts outright state they can move into oblivion/pass on but are too scared to. I think it'd make sense that Alex might be doing the same with that ending. By demonstrating it herself she might hope to encourage the ghosts to follow her or somthing. In the trapping yourself ending they say "We'll play your way" She's trapped in the loop as long as we remain invested trying to pick at the ending.
I know alot of pepole are putting faith in the ARG for a nicer ending and or conclusion, and I wish them all well with that, but I'm personally okay with downer/sad endings.