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With 18 horsemanship you should be steaming ahead. I usually do.
Also horses can cause damage so be careful and try not to bash into them.
The 2nd time, I took alternative routes - instead of going N.E. up into the forest outside of Talmberg, I went south of it, and came back this way. I could see the other riders when I hit checkpoints, but had a sizable lead on them throughout.
I suspect there are other ways to win this race as well.
And AfLIcTeD was right in pointing out, which I also realized in-game (but it was too late) that cutting from the mill to the quarry in a straight line actually was at least slightly beneficial.
So, thankfully the quest is doable, but I am still not certain about the design sense of using AI opponents with hyped-up stats and perfect pathfinding. My view is that unless the horse is inferior — which in this case is a possibility — Henry should be able to win without those shortcuts if his stats are high enough, especially close to max, and if the player executes the moves flawlessly.
I realize the opponents are described as the best riders in the county, they are specially summoned and it takes a while to gather them, so this is not a village championship. Plus, the contestants look like some sort of local gentry who ride around as their default mode of transportation rather than for sport, though they ride for sport too, hunting or racing. So no wonder that our Hal, a blacksmith's boy fresh from bootcamp, has not achieved the same level of riding skill within weeks as those guys within their lifetimes. But the game isn't clear on the 20 figure being Henry's max as opposed to anybody's max skill in a given field. Trainers act like 'me teach you? you already know everything' and won't train you after you've taken their masterclasses (level 15 and above). So I'm a bit meh on this.
By contrast, the archery competitions are probably supposed to be tough, but you can actually win a lot of them if you learn a good technique and reload a bunch of times. The opponents are tough but defeatable; they are not flawless unless you go for the master competition with low Henry skill and low player skill. But the Talmberg racers are just too perfect, in a way that's neither interesting, nor challenging.
On the last leg you can take a shortcut to the back of Talmberg and gain a ton of distance. Likewise, when heading to the quarry you can cut across diagonally while the others will stick strictly to the roads. i.e. you can cheat a bit and still win.
Additionally, I think it helps to be wearing light armor and carrying minimal gear to lighten the load on your horse. It only makes sense.
To add something of my own, however, I quickly marked my preferred route on a map (don't mind the crosses & shrines, they were for another project).
By using this route I usually encounter the competition on my way to checkpoint 3, while they are still making their way to checkpoint 2. So if you struggle with this race, give it a go.
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2613891868
P.S. Where there's just 1 line, I take the same route to and from the checkpoint. So I only diverge from that route where the new line starts.
Horses are amazing jumpers, so amazing they can literally get into places they shouldn't.
Fast travel on the map near the competitors until you get a random encounter for a fight, then start the race with the enemies in tow?