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Carefree is practically worthless.. damage negation based on chance at the end-game is not really needed at the skill level the player is at at that point... whereas Child is essentially an eternal DOT which in itself helps you avoid damage by making the fight shorter
The chance for Carefree Song negate an attack is very low at first, and increases by TAKING damage. The one thing I learned from this game is that I should rely on learning the enemies patterns and try to dodge their attacks. This charm definitely don't fit in this description
Also, it takes over three notches, which is the same as some top tier charms, like Fragile/Unbreakable Strength, Shaman Stone or Quick Focus.
Edit: that being said, I never found Grimmchild to be that good anyway either
#1 - I agree. Comparing those two charms, the one that can make some difference when exploring is Carefree Melody.
#2 - it depends on the boss. If the boss isn't too fast, Grimmchild can help you focus on dodging while it does some damage. It may speed up the fight a bit. Carefree is just too random to count that it will help you.
One specific boss that I almost beat using Grimmchild (on radiant) was Markoth. It was difficulty to approach him in its second phase, when he had his two shields, so I tried the Grimmchild, and it was kind of useful. But ultimately, I switched to Grubberfly's Elegy to attack from distance.