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You already know the optimal startegy so I can only advise wearing the Spell Twister (obv, Salubra's blessing is a must, for fast soul replenishment on ther bench). Also you always land on the same spot of the well, so dont bother aiming the dive.
Mechanically speaking, the chance feels like static 5%, but that's purely gut feeling. Really wish the Devs made it so the chances would increment by 1% with each broken sign to guarantee the encouter.
So yeah.. gotta pray to RNGesus
EDIT: also, isn't the current mechanic a speedrun killer?
And I agree absolutly with increasing chance after every try. Even 1% would make great difference. They already did similar thing with Carefree Melody so why not with Menderbug?
I recall 106% being the max completion after the 2 DLCs.
Correction: I have 106% in fact. I just forgot that Trial of Fool rises completion to max. 106% and I wasn't able to defeat it for a long time and so 105 number stuck with me for a while.