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The most proper choice is to fight. The dragon clearly expects it, and gives you time to prep. And only comes back to see your progress. You should not let him down. And it's a knightly thing to do.
Should you lose the Greg will likely put on another show, with hardly any casualties, to find another Arisen. Big deal.
The guaranteed period? Sure, you can have a guaranteed period of 50 years, where you build your power naively thinking that you can prepare for the next comming of The Dragon.
...or you can have no Dragon for 1000+ years.
2. I operate on levels of magnitude rather than years. 1000+ is just a proposal. The Dragonforged says that his heart was stolen something like 1000 years ago. And you learn that it was stolen by the current dragon. Pardon, current Dragon.
That means that the current Senechal can hold his office for a very long time. And no need to send the Dragon if you do not need a replacement, aye?
Let's face it: Dragons only return every 50 or so years if you have taken the deal.
Yes, he gets told about the fake dragons-bane. The word is about the other one who slew the wyrm before the imposter though. And even if the Arisen would doubt that anyone have ever slain the dragon, he'd also be aware that the deal is merely a posponement of a great tragedy.
And why would he assume that he, the true Arisen, cannot win in the first place? Is that how challenges work in RL? Ppl giving up when others have failed?
The duke is a coward, the Dragon challenges you, you are not like the duke and take up the challenge. This is what heroes do.
BTW Why the 50 years. It may as well be 10 or 20. The alleged imposter before Edmun got 100. Maybe the Dragon gets impatient?
The Arisen doesn't have to know this, but has every right to learn about the dragon working in cycles. From the Faith ppl, like Haslett, who explains the whole dragon schematics.
https://dragonsdogma.fandom.com/wiki/Haslett#Quotes
We are omitting one, tiny detail here.
There's a person's life at stake. And lore wise this is the Arisen's beloved.
It's not like the Arisen just decides to fight or go away and take the throne.
So yeah, there's also this.
I'm literally not sure what this means, I'm afraid.
A tragedy he can postpone for 2 generations if he makes a sacrifice, or could occur TOMORROW if he fails to do something that might well be impossible.
The Duke was also a "true" Arisen--this phrase is not in the game and is meaningless, unless our Arisen is so arrogant to think he's better than all the others despite being a nobody. Why would he assume he CAN win? Yes, in real life, that is what people do, when challenged to swim across the Pacific Ocean or jump over the Grand Canyon, aka, things that seem physically impossible and life ending.
...and? Being a "hero" isn't really a thing here; this isn't a JRPG where the protagonist has grown up his whole life babbling about wanting to be a great hero, then actually goes on that character-developing journey. Furthermore, I could just as easily turn it around; a hero is willing to make a personal sacrifice to save the lives of others, not selfishly doom people to save something important to himself, nor have the ego to think he can fight off a walking, fire-breathing mountain with a 3-foot sword, one that he knows has terrorized the world since time immemorial and already kicked his butt once before. It's not like we have some magical sword, the Dragonslayer blade bequeathed by a god or something.
I didn't forget that detail at all, as I directly referenced "sacrificing innocents" in my initial post. But that's just it; it's a personal sacrifice to save others, and that, to me, seems like the more moral and heroic choice, for anyone who doesn't have a childlike notion that all the people can be saved all the time and that good guys always win (I don't mean you, I mean an Arisen who chooses that option). You could argue it's still immoral to sacrifice that knowingly, no matter what, but in "RL", sometimes you have to make a choice where all options are bad.
Yes, if he can make a sacrifice.
Yes, and that's why the Newly Arisen doesn't have to assume anything. He just does it.
"personal sacrifice" is just sophistry if you are not the one that gets to die.
On the other hand this "ego" is a major trait behind all true heroic deeds.
The will to sacrifice innocent life in exchange for benefits probably isn't.
It may seem moral, on some level, but it clearly is not heroic.
"Heroic" implicates something brave or great. And indirectly an effort.
2. As for morality. I said it seems moral. But in reality it's about sacrificing one for the benefit of many, a calm calculation. It has nothing to do with morality.
And it's not 1 life vs 12s-100s-1000s. It's 1 life guaranteed vs maybe 1 maybe 1000s. And if you are ready to risk, your life, not that maybe 1-1000s, you may save that 1 life. That's how I look at this issue.
Variables? Sure.
The hero fell every single obstacle that stood on his way. He's offcially the best match for the dragon in the entire realm.
Now, this kind of thinking, about "good shots", about the odds, is the domain of wise, cunning maybe, not brave. The idea behind heroism is bravery, standing against the odds.
1 chance in 100 000? Sign me in!
'Tis a moral choice in hero's code, win or die trying.