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It also depends on what kind of dragon, if you only have 1 star stuff and a normal dragon or wyvern, its something like 2% chance rolled for every part you have equipped.
i am not sure but i think there is 100% chance for killing the last dragon, or the online ur dragon,
its a longtime since i did this, so i could be wrong.
alright thanks man, and yeah I had most of my gear at 2 stars but none of it dragonforged, I thought it would be a low % chance was just double checking
As far as I noticed, only the dragons you encounter in Bitterback Isle can dragonforge (I'm sure I'm wrong on this one, but I never had anything become dragonforged from the dragons in Gransys). As Tearfulstab said, depends on the dragon you kill depends on chance, with undead having the highest chance it seems. The undead dragon that you kill with the bishop in bitterback also seems to have a very high chance of dragonforging a weapon, while Grigori (the main dragon that started the adventure) and the Ur-Dragon has a 100% chance of dragonforging.
Just some tip:
When You are about to finish any drake (so he have not much hp left), run away so You can save game. Go finish him. Your wanted item not dragonforged - load game, repeat until success. I've dragonforged every equipment piece like that.
Cursed Dragon have the highest chance of forging besides the Ur.
the first time i did it i started with a rusty bow, it took a long long time, i was very low level, but i did overcome the dragon in the end by using the cubby hole hiding spot in the grate shooting from back by the chest. (make sure it is 3 star upgraded when you do it, otherwise you won't have torpor going for you).
i was like level 20 or so.
make sure you carry a kunai (to forge) for backup the first time as you will need it when you run into the dark bishop soon after, it will tear him up really bad even weilded by a low level arisen.
But once you get to higher levels~ like what capricorn1971ad4 said, Cursed Dragons have the highest chance of forging and probably the easiest to kill of all the dragonkin.
You can just buy Rancid Bait Meat from Barroch and go to Blue Moon Tower (the second room after entering BBI's main entrance) there you can use the bait and spawn a Cursed Dragon, if you were unlucky by any chance, you can always go out of the room and back in, the bait will still be in effect and another Cursed Dragon will be there waiting.
umm, midnight helix, bait a dragon near the cyclops, cause the dragon to unchain him or help unchain him yourself and hide for the battle, occasionally peppering the dragon (especially with a rusty bow with 3+ stars) and let the cyclops kill him if you have to, it will still possibly dragonforge your gear. Thats how I dragonforged all my level 53 mages gear, doing that repeatedly.
you can actually dispose of a cursed dragon and never lift a finger yourself in this game, in the midnight helix, with baitmeat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj2YmECuUzU&t=82s