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And, if not, abstain from games until Menace is released. I'm sure it will be a breeze. Looks like a nice friendly game and not resulting in any player deaths.
The easiest starting origin is generally agreed to be either Trading Caravan or Peasant Militia. Trading caravan gives a +10% boost to buy/sell prices, which is the opposite of what Beast Slayers get. This means you can occasionally buy and sell trade goods for small profits that wouldn't be at profitable rates at all for other origins, and you effectively make 10% more money on selling loot after every battle. It adds up much more than the renown penalty does.
I don't like Peasant Militia as it locks you away from a lot of recruits, but you do get a bigger party, and the game has a cap of how many brothers it considers when determining contract difficulty, so Peasant Militia should effectively always have an easier time in battle than other origins.
Other than those two, the Ranger and Rebuilding a Company origins are considered the easiest. Most of the rest are either harder or at least more complicated than the default origin. Rebuilding a Company is the default, but it actually gives you 3 well above average bros to start with, no weaknesses and a unique quest later on.
If you want a few general tips, I guess I can give a few:
1. If there's a very dangerous beast that wrecks you. Chances are it's countered by nets. You can get nets from towns with harbors, and also from recruiting fishermen sometimes. They are also fairly good at taking on tougher human enemies. Just buy nets whenever you get the chance. If you've got hardly any harbors, you might want to just restart with a different seed.
2. Use spears with bad bros. However switch their weapons out for something else if fighting ancient dead. Wouldn't recommend using spears later on without a specific setup as spear damage will always remain low even when you get better spears.
3. Unless a bro is almost useless in melee, don't bother using ranged weapons vs ancient dead. If you have to have them at range at least don't let them fight using bows.
4. Destroyed gear is not lootable (except rarely for Northern Raiders origin). If you are willing to risk a few bros, you can give them knives as backup weapons and have them switch to them to puncture a heavily armored enemy to death if you want to loot his armor. Or you could just outright buy armor if you have the money for it.
5. Some bros might seem incredibly overpriced, but keep in mind they are recruited with their gear, which can be worth a lot more than the bro themselves.
6. It's rarely worth it to fight orcs or goblins early on. Their loot is worth less than bandit and barbarian loot, and they tend to be much much harder. They tend to be pretty high risk and low reward fights even later on.
7. It's almost always better to take contracts fighting human enemies rather than beasts. The trophies aren't really worth anywhere near as much as the loot you'd get from human enemies, at least not until later on. Also the easiest beasts to take on early on will still be tougher than your average bandit or barbarian.
8. Occasionally you will find a beast group wandering around in low numbers. If you've got a setup to easily take them on, it can be worth it. For example if you've got 3 dudes with nets and a few decent damage dealers, a single unhold is disproportionately rewarding if you see one wandering around.
9. It's almost never worth it to make a human faction hostile and raid their caravans... But if you are going to do it, go hard on the raiding, because hostile factions mean fewer contracts. Raiding caravans does give good rewards for low risk though.
Overall good post, but I strongly disagree with the notion that peasant militia is the easiest background. I would even say that it is relatively hard. The reason is tied to how scaling works. Apart from scaling over #days in and distance from civilization, scaling comes from the number of bros in your roster up to 12, (for peasant militia up to 14), and the level of your bros. Each brother gets 10 points, plus 2 points for each level after level 1 (e.g. a level 5 brother has a score of 18). But one level 8 bro is generally significantly more useful than 2 level 2 bros. And with peasant militia, you start with lots of injured and weak bros. A cripple and a hedge knight contribute equally. So generally speaking, with a small elite group, you will have a much easier time than with a large group of weak guys. Sure, Peasant Militia is good late game, but that doesn't matter if you don't reach the late game.
That being said, if you face more enemies you can potentially get bigger rewards as well. But for new players this latter issue isn't very relevant, as new players should really be focusing on the easier fights to start thriving.
Get billhooks as soon as possible.
After 20 days you should have some tempo brothers that can fight well, which means relying less on RNG.
And I don't recommend any beginner to play peasant militia. It can be the strongest origin after 30 or 40 days, but if you died ar day 10 then it is meaningless.
The shortcoming of peasant militia is, that you start with very poor brothers and equipment, which means you need to know how to play the game well, and also have not bad RNG at the same time to survive the early game.
The best origin for beginner should be Rebuilding a Company. It gives you good brothers with good equipment. You can also learn and try to get the armor in the first fight, also quite useful. Another good origin is Trading Caravan when you have basic knowledge about how to do the combat.
I'll give this one a big disagree. Goblins aren't great, I wouldn't call it bad, but I can see why you wouldn't want to fight them. However beating an orc party early game is incredibly useful. An head chopper or an head splitter early game is such a massive asset! The downside of the weapons is the fat cost, but early game bros with light armours and no perks that cost fat have an excess of fat.
It's certainly not the easiest enemy band to take on for a beginner, but if I see an orc party I can take down, I'll go for it anytime.
It seems like the game is designed with that in mind, which is definitely not something I'm used to.
It is a single player game so no one to judge you and since you cannot savescum individual RNG rolls i find it innocuous as long as you do not get obsessive.