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Yeah its risky but fun and profitable when it goes well. I always see one level 3 nacho and the rest level 2. At higher levels I just got extra level 2s. Usually the nomads are easy before day 40 but then again it makes a big difference if they have a whip or a polemace.
For level 3 nachos I tend to use knockback as they can only Swallow at full movement. Nets are good too
Supposedly it is possible to get easier Nacho groups than that but I've never seen it myself. Either way it is prudent to be prepared for a level 3 to be present and if your trio can't reliably handle that then you should skip the fight.
I looked into this, and it's a bit tricky to calculate since unlike regular contracts, the Arena will normalise your party strength to 12 bros,
I.e. if you have 6 bros with an average level of 5, which would normally be 108 party strength, it treats it as if you have 12 with an average level of 5, which would be 216.
But if you have 15 level 5 bros, which would normally be 216 strength still (actual party strength won't scale beyond the 12 highest level bros for most origins), the Arena treats it as if you had 216 / 15 * 12 = 172.
But back to the point, the way the Arena chooses to add a high tier nacho is a binary system.
If your party reaches a certain level of strength (also based on number of arena fights won, as well as combat difficulty) then the fight is 1 large nacho and as many medium nachos as necessary to fill out the resources provided.
If your party doesn't reach that level of strength, then the resources are split in half and each is given to spawn low and medium nachos.
On Expert difficulty, not accounting for the bonus difficulty from being a prize fight and from number of arena fights won, you need to have your team average a level below 3.5 to avoid facing a large nacho.
However if you go beyond 12 bros this number get higher.
so i played with the gladiator start.
was trying to complete the 5 arena battles-seemed pretty safe with those guys. first three missions were various cake walks, 4th arena battle pitted me vs two gladiators. i used my 3 pretty good mercs, and they cut through me like a knife through butter.
i am starting to wonder if one should just stay clear of the arena. i always play ironman, and since the arena is a bit of a random deal with very different difficulties, perhaps it should be avoided?
if one could just restart, it might be more fun/useful.