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Also: you claimed 10% chances are....they don't exist. there is no general 10% chance for anything specific to spawn because you took a caravanmission. There is no such thing in the code.
Oh, you were talking about the EVENTS that might cause this?
Well, yes these exist, but... since, as far as I'm aware, these are also influenced by the event cooldown, the chance for them to happen is FAR LOWER than 10%, because they simply will not trigger if you had an event recently. I think I had the Necrosavants once or twice in 600 hours of playtime.
The only downside to caravan missions in the above conditions are that you might be attacked by so many enemy parties that you no longer have any room to store all the loot, and that you might get attacked by masses of boring enemies on rough terrain (meaning easy/boring fights that take ages because of, e.g., zombies edging their way through forests/swamps).
If you don't meet the conditions specified in the first paragraph, caravan missions can always be risky. Even if it's a short journey, there's still risk if there's any rough/narrow/winding terrain to get through. If it's a very short journey across totally open country, it might be okay.
By day 200, caravan contracts should be almost zero risk in my experience. You should have a strong company by then and the majority of enemies will ignore you because you are too strong.
If your company isn't strong, particularly in the early game, then caravan contracts can very well be death traps as you can get slammed by multiple fights. Always be mindful of where it is sending you to. Map seeds tend to have certain road areas that tend to get a lot of enemy action due to lack of nearby towns and other macro factors. If your caravan is passing through these danger zones and you have a weak team, expect a lot of fights. Sometimes you need to abandon.
Caravans during a crisis can be more risky due to the increased roaming mob presence, though if your team is strong it isn't much of a concern.
Successful caravan missions give Well Supplied status to the receptive town, which can spawn famed items if you have money to burn, or load up on cheap trade goods, tools, etc.
TLDR: Late game it should be little to no risk and can help spawn famed items in shops.
TLDR: Early game it tends to be high risk and you should probably only take short/safe routes or avoid entirely. Know when to abandon if it gets too bad.
In another playthrough, I got Necrosavants on the very first caravan escort contract. I got the Necrosavants ambush twice so far (different playthroughs) and I'm yet to pass 100 hours of playtime. I also generally avoid caravan escort contracts and among the limited sample of me doing them, the appearance rate is higher than 10%. I've met the nobles 3 times total so even higher.
I'm probably really unlucky. That's how RNG works. Still, the claim that it's "far lower than 10%" really surprises me. That means that I've been extremely unlucky with caravan escort contracts in my playthroughs. RNGesus really hates me.
I know it's possible to complete an escort without any battles or few manageable battles but the contract in general feels like a gamble that's not in your favor. You win the gamble, you get 25 renown and +10 relations. You lose, you lose 75 renown and -20 relations with two settlements. The only reasons someone would be willing to take the gamble is if they know that they can't lose it because they're too powerful, save-scumming, or a bigger masochist than I am.
I'm going to avoid caravan escort mission like the plague from now on. I will only do them when non-legendary enemies pose no threat as Estieukua recommends.
I'm struggling leveling up my brothers. I always end up having an endless amount of gold and very high renown, but a company full of low level brothers... Battles feel like they're giving very little EXP, and brothers below level 7 feel very squishy without Nimble or Forged regardless of defenses and health. Very few of my brothers manage to make it to level 7. It's definitely a combination of me not picking my enemies correctly and using ineffective tactics.
I've read so many guides and watched so many videos but I still can't seem to figure out what I'm doing wrong. I guess I can only get better with more experience.
As to caravans specifically i usually avoid the long ones say anything 3 days or longer. I try to do them last out of a settlements missions since i'm ready to move on anyway. Any i always say need some time to think about it to check where they are actually sending me. I often then turn them down.
As you've noticed the caravan missions are often a break even in terms of money so unless there's some other 'plus' like, heading where i want to go anyway, or visiting a settlement with decent shops or im short for food and poor (they'll feed you, then pay you and the food at the visited settlement will be cheaper. wink) i can take it or leave it.
Asking the real questions now, I see.
Last time I cared about that topic (They might reworked it, because that has been quite the time) events had a fix time between them of AT LEAST 2 days (exept for certain events, like some crisis related events), but with the system Events are triggered the real time between them is somewhere between 3 1/2 and 5 days when events SHOULD happen.
Also Events will not happen close to enemy patrols or camps, EXEPT for events related to certain patrols or camps (for example the "scare unholds", that will only trigger when starting a fight against unholds).
So that together the caravan events we talked about may trigger on a chance of 10% IF the game triggers an event duriing your caravancontract.