alpha pack broken?

[Paper King]

I'm at 51% now, never been this unlucky...someone else feel something wrong?

[KungYii1994]

same , this happen since outbreak update. i sure they nerf the drop rate

[Paw Patrol]

Originally posted by THE COW KILLER:

I'm at 51% now, never been this unlucky...someone else feel something wrong?

A few days ago I didn't get mine until 81%. It paid off tho with an Epic (Black Ice) only for the p226 tho

[Cutest Kenan (They/Them)]

Originally posted by Deepfriedwatermelon:

Originally posted by THE COW KILLER:

I'm at 51% now, never been this unlucky...someone else feel something wrong?

Theyre probably planning to make the alpha packs purchaseable aswell and theyre testing out nerfing the droprates, moneygrabbing cucks

I mean they already announced they plan to eventually make them buyable with r6 credits but besides that-

Thats how RNG works. Yeah, 51% is in your favor, but there is still a 49% chance it won't give you a pack.

[Cutest Kenan (They/Them)]

Originally posted by Deepfriedwatermelon:

Originally posted by Kenan:

I mean they already announced they plan to eventually make them buyable with r6 credits but besides that-

Thats how RNG works. Yeah, 51% is in your favor, but there is still a 49% chance it won't give you a pack.

ive won 5 matches in a row going from 60 to 70%, that is not how RNG works, thats how a skewed NG works

That is how RNG works lol, you can have it 99% and there is still a 1% you'd fail.

Oh right i forgot, ubi is the devil, blah blah, never did anything to help the community or improve the game, blah blah

[Cutest Kenan (They/Them)]

Originally posted by Deepfriedwatermelon:

Originally posted by Kenan:

That is how RNG works lol, you can have it 99% and there is still a 1% you'd fail.

Oh right i forgot, ubi is the devil, blah blah, never did anything to help the community or improve the game, blah blah

uhhhh... you let your fanboy shilling get a lil bit out of control there dude, if theyre lying about your chances to get an alpha pack then its not a fair random numer generator handing out packs, its a "random" number generator that favors ubi, its pretty "evil" imo and yes, ubi are scumbags

I don't believe we've seen any evidence that surely prove that they have skewed your chances lmao, only people gettin unlucky (I myself usually never go over 20% to get a pack so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)

[Cutest Kenan (They/Them)]

Originally posted by Deepfriedwatermelon:

Originally posted by Kenan:

I don't believe we've seen any evidence that surely prove that they have skewed your chances lmao, only people gettin unlucky (I myself usually never go over 20% to get a pack so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)

i missed one at 80% right now, its obvious that theyve lowered the chances for it, not even any question about it

You still have a 20% chance of not gettin one :y

[Cutest Kenan (They/Them)]

Originally posted by Deepfriedwatermelon:

Originally posted by Kenan:

You still have a 20% chance of not gettin one :y

yeah but when youve gotten 5 dropchances in a freaking row from 70% to 80% its highly UNLIKELY that you wouldnt get one if the numbers werent off, jeezes

Yeah, it is unlikely, not impossible to not get one.

Since we're using anecdotal evidence or however its spelled, me getting alpha packs at 20, or even less, percent chances disproves any skewing.

[Big Mama]

is a scam

[Leonhiro]

oh my dear math handicapped students. Lets have a journy on cumulative probability.

Lets say you are at a shooting range and you are shooting at a target. you have 2/100 chance of hitting the target at first shot. So;

Getting a bullseye (alpha pack) at first shot is : 0.02

But you miss and correct your aim for the next shot. Your chance of getting a hit in this part is 4/100 but we are calculating getting a hit on 2 shots not on 2nd shot only. So we add 1st and 2nd shot togetherNow your chance of getting an alpha pack is;

(0.02)+(0.98*0.04)= 0.0592

lets say You miss again and you aim better to hit that mofugga. For 3 shots your chance of getting an alpha pack is;

(0.02)+(0.98*0.04)+(0.96*0.98*0.06)= 0.115648

And so on and on.
Glad this helped.

Sources:

Kayran, A. H., Prof, & Yücel, M. N., Prof. (2014). Olasılık Teorisi ve Skotastik Süreçler. Papatya.

[Hondik]

Originally posted by Deepfriedwatermelon:

Originally posted by Kenan:

You still have a 20% chance of not gettin one :y

yeah but when youve gotten 5 dropchances in a freaking row from 70% to 80% its highly UNLIKELY that you wouldnt get one if the numbers werent off, jeezes

XCOM packs

[primobrainlet]

people use alpha packs? ive always just bought skins I liekd with renown