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In the first case, it becomes obvious that Hurst is going to kill the lords, which is why Sherlock Holmes goes there in a hurry. But once there, it's the corpse of the pauper that should indicate to you that Marsh is bad. Although it is possible that the man was there by coincidence and Hurst killed him as well, it is more probable that he was brought by Marsh.
All cases will be the same. Many conclusions, all equally possible, but one of them is more probable than the rest.
That's the way of these new Sherlock games though, too much guessing.. I want to go back to the old style where Sherlock KNOWS who the bad guy is, all the evidence points to it irrefutably, and THEN we as the player can decide what course of action to take (Conviction, or Absolution) but Sherlock should always know the final outcome with certainty.
Heavy Spoilers for case 2 ahead (in spoiler format this time):
Case 2 is working with the conduction board just perfect. First you hear about the moving statue and can simply say "Oh it is a mayan curse the ghost of that mayan guy killed him by possessing the statue". Then you get to know about Sir Charles debts and you can say that he is the culprit, but the money cannot really be the reason because he still keeps on his massive gold part of the treasure. Once you found out about Bernards Machines you can say it was him, but well, spear throwing by machine OK, but running away after and jumping over a wall? Definitely no. And once you sniffed around everyhwere, and found all evidence, you get to see the temple and will inevitably get the right conclusion right after. That is how it should be. After getting all evidence possible you can and will get the one and only right conclusion, but before you could go for wrong ones because you have not gotten all evidence yet. Without the guessing it made so much sense, fitted Holmes, and was very satisfying to end the case like that.
Too bad they had to design that temple. Oh my god. Thanks i could skip things. Those were horrible scenes. But that is a topic on its own.
Play the small case at the start of the third case and you will know what I mean.
The principle I use is a quote from Sherlock Holmes: Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.
The reason why I dont think Hurst is psychopath is because he is too well prepared if he is a psychopath. He paid the charge for his son, he wrote a letter to farewell. And with the books he given to his son, he certainly see the important of education, and enhance his son's social mobility. Such caring and responsible dad cant just kill for fun.
For the lord, he is sick, heavily, but he is rich. I dont know the reason behind, but for me, it seems like hes doing sth 'no turning back', which certainly not his charitable actions. He is so rich, there is no reason to die so soon, for the money he can enjoy, and for the support of the education program, if he is really a kind guy. Unless there are secrets behind the education program, which ends up , well, what I expected.
I think that Mr.Hurst was shooting you, possibly thinking you where one of the Lords he was hunting, Sherlock Holmes isn't someone instantly recognized by the general public, at least not in this case.
You must also know that hunting humans, those considered inferior, such as minorities, the poor and sick etc, was something that actually happened in the past, the rich and powerful could get away with it. As The Zodiac said "I kill humans because they are the best game".
It's not a guessing work, you just don't use enough thought to analyze all the clues, even the subtle ones like the words the NPCs use etc. Not everything is fed to you by the developers.
HOWEVER! You are right to complain about the writing and the poor execution of the game.
You must remember that the developers made the game in a way that you can choose what you believe is right, so there are multiple endings instead of one fixed solution, but there is only one correct choice. Which in turn means that since they give you the freedom to chose, they had to write the scenes in a way that would make sense (granted it's little sense) for every ending you chose.
It's not a guessing game, for the hardcore Sherlock fans it's crystal clear. You're just allowed to be wrong and the game will pat you on the back and say in a Bob Ross voice "There are no mistakes only happy little accidents!"
I think the deductions were the worst part of that case.
If you learn that Marley truly believes he is the "chosen one", then you are forced to believe that he is guilty. No other conclusion is possible at that point. There just happens to be an entry in his diary that says "I know I am the chosen one", so therefore he should be guilty. NOPE.
Wait it wasn't the tech guy? The first is clearly off and I couldn't see how could the cripple kill a person like that.??
At first I thought it is very simply the lords hunting peasants, but then I thought that would be very cheesy and done to death etc.
Also lord Hurst has letters from peasants happy about the program, so it is not far fetched that he actually got his tuberculosis from dealing with peasants (pretty sure you don't have to cut off heads to get it either).
Also there is only one missing person to go on really and you can't even talk to his wife and get more information, which was infuriating (locked gate down the street).
So all you can do is "link" the missing homeless people to lords killing peasants "just because" and take the lord's doctor ripping of the search note as subterfuge or aggression. So in the end: No, you cannot be 100% sure. Maybe if one could talk to the wife of the missing person, then she could have confirmed that her husband also went on "a special task". Also the "special task" and the education program get mixed up, since the missing person is in the program (says the list), but the program seems to a legit thing (letter from pauper).
So it is very confusing and understandable that the final conclusion is at BEST an educated guess (easy, if you think the overdone hunting story is legit).
The letter from Hurts's friend also confirms that he is wounded and he himself actually says that they probably declined him for the education program because of his wounded veteran status, so it is just another red herring which gives him another motive (given he and his friend both were desperate for jobs). Also: If Marsh was hunting you and Hurst was hunting Marsh... where is Marsh's rifle? And even if he had lost it, whad happened to his dog that you can hear while you are being chased. And on another note: If Hurst was gone for so long, why would the lords meet up and start hunting Holmes/fresh peasants? They would have known that Hurst was lurking in the forest with a rifle to get them I assume (since he killed lord Harrington in the last hunt already, his face was blue!). Also Hurst didn't even seem to have gotten the special job either, since I don't remember him from is own list with the groups of people written down.
For example, in the second case, for one deduction you have to choose between "Sir Charles is aware of the curse" and "Sir Charles is unaware of the existence of a curse".
In order to get the correct solution at the end of the case, you have to choose the "unaware" deduction, but this is in fact a wrong deduction.
The expedition members would have been aware of at least the legend of a curse either before or after the expedition when the murder victim made known to the others he was researching it.
Whether each member believes curses are a real thing does not change their awareness of the curse. And whether someone personally believes a curse is real or not doesn't stop them from potentially using the legend of a curse as a scapegoat for murder.
https://gq-game-mods.blogspot.com/2024/01/game-review-sherlock-holmes-the-devils-daughter.html