Missing a LOT of 99% shots

[Urban Shaman]

OK, something's off.

Plenty of times I get into a fight where the enemy is right in my face, the "aim" indicator says the chance to hit is 99%, but the shot misses.

Yeah, I get it. 99% is less than 100% - it's not a guaranteed chance. But this should happen once every 100 attempts. It can happen multiple times in a single fight.

What gives?

[Clockwork]

Some people believe that point blank makes your target harder to hit (presumably he defends himself), although I'm having fun using the Sniper on Point Blank to test my accuracy.

[Urban Shaman]

Originally posted by Clockwork:

Some people believe that point blank makes your target harder to hit (presumably he defends himself), although I'm having fun using the Sniper on Point Blank to test my accuracy.

Even then... does the hit accuract reflect the actual hit chance, or is it some base chance that is later manipulated due to various conditions?

I'm inclined to believe it's the latter, but it would be nice to know what affects accuracy...

[Clockwork]

What I noticed is you tend to have a lower accuracy than what's actually displayed (my bet would be because computer RNG isn't perfect, as always). I tend to miss my shots below 79% in Dragonfall, and below 84% in Hong Kong. But then, sometime I get lucky and hit all my 40%.

[Urban Shaman]

Originally posted by Clockwork:

What I noticed is you tend to have a lower accuracy than what's actually displayed (my bet would be because computer RNG isn't perfect, as always). I tend to miss my shots below 79% in Dragonfall, and below 84% in Hong Kong. But then, sometime I get lucky and hit all my 40%.

That's why I'm focusing on the 99-chance shots that miss. Those happening as frequently as they do mean something is off.

[di eshor ribly]

Originally posted by Clockwork:

Some people believe that point blank makes your target harder to hit (presumably he defends himself), although I'm having fun using the Sniper on Point Blank to test my accuracy.

Some people would be correct assuming the enemy involved has Close Combat 6, since it increases defense against firearms in melee range.

[Dessabelle]

I think in all three games, the hit chance doesn't include cover and maybe some other factors.

So if they are sitting down at all, even if you hit them at a partial angle they get a percentage bonus decrease independent of what it says.

99% would become 50% for example

Its actually good because it makes knives and swords better after it props them up

[Zadok]

Originally posted by Nephilim:

Its actually good because it makes knives and swords better after it props them up

I'm inclined to believe Shuriken the best weapon in the game.

[Clockwork]

Originally posted by Zadok:

Originally posted by Nephilim:

Its actually good because it makes knives and swords better after it props them up

I'm inclined to believe Shuriken the best weapon in the game.

So far, I'm a (Sniper) Rifle believer. The Rifle Totem is satisfied when I deal hundred of damages.

[Ancient Toaster]

Even more so in this release than the previous two, I find that I miss high percentage shots at least half the time. In the other game when I had 88% to 90ish% chance to hit I was pretty confident.

I've missed point blank 89% shots with is0bel in the matrix 3 times in a row. I've missed a 98% chance with a Flamethrower spell last night in the Dig mission against a Gargoyle. I missed a point blank melee attack with Gaichu in the same mission.

[Urban Shaman]

Originally posted by AncientToaster:

Even more so in this release than the previous two, I find that I miss high percentage shots at least half the time. In the other game when I had 88% to 90ish% chance to hit I was pretty confident.

I've missed point blank 89% shots with is0bel in the matrix 3 times in a row. I've missed a 98% chance with a Flamethrower spell last night in the Dig mission against a Gargoyle. I missed a point blank melee attack with Gaichu in the same mission.

This is exactly the kind of s**t I'm talking about! :/ I'd love to know what's going on, because I'm not buying that we're this jinxed.

[jbridso]

Last I checked with a console command which showed rolls... it was 100% accurate. The reason why it feels like you miss alot of 95%+ shots is the fact that you always remember missing such a shot since you "shouldn't have missed" even though there is a chance of failure.

"Negativity bias - is the human tendency to be more easily influenced by and to recall negative experiences, instead of neutral or positive ones."

[Urban Shaman]

Originally posted by jbridso:

"Negativity bias - is the human tendency to be more easily influenced by and to recall negative experiences, instead of neutral or positive ones."

Sorry, but I have to question if the console isn't wrong somehow either.

I've played X-Com before, and, sure, every now and again I'd miss a high-chance shot. But those were in the 70-80 range. Missing a 99% shot? Very VERY unlikely. Perhaps happened once?

In Shadowrun I've missed multiple point-blank 99% shots.

[yezhanquan]

I do believe that the numbers sometimes do not update properly, so it may not be 99% but was displayed as such.

[Pulowski]

WELCOME TO CSGO SIMULATOR 2015

[7FOUR]

Speaking as someone who never had any complaints about RNG in Darkest Dungeon and XCOM, I say there's got to be something missing from the calculations for the displayed hit percentages. Playing an Adept makes this readily apparent, if you use Qi Focus/Onslaught frequently. Not only do ~90% attacks miss much more frequently than is statistically likely, but you wouldn't believe how many coin flips (~50% attacks) I've lost in a row. Feels like Final Tantasy Tactics A2 all over again.

Granted none of this really matters because the game is easy as is, but it's annoying nonetheless.