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There's the option to open trade with the nanban (foreigners), which will allow access to converting to Christianity (which will conflict with Buddhist clans in addition to Ikko), imported cannon and Matchlock weapons and the uber-powerful Nanban Trade Ship, which will decimate the normally non-gunpowder fleets you'll encounter. There's also the Otomo DLC, which I believe is a clan focused on trade and interaction with the Nanban, so their gameplay will be highly focused on the above with some unique units/choices. Another clan, the Hojo are siege specialists and can recruit highly dangerous Fire Bomber (grenade) and I believe Fire Rocket units.
I think the opposite applies in FOTS from what I've heard, where two major alliances in Japan face up with one more focused on the 'new' gunpowder technology and the other more focused on 'traditional' means of warfare. So either way at least one side (if not both) is going to be making heavy use of guns. Another poster can clarify this though.
TLDR: - If you want a swords/arrows with optional gunpowder - Shogun 2. For more guns, FOTS.
In FOTS, the only place your theory holds true (from what I've seen) is in the historical battles. On the grand campaign, everyone is going to upgrade to use guns. And if you decide to hang back and use traditional units as your mainstay, you're going to lose a lot. Trust me, I know.
Good news is that FOTS has sharpshooter units which allow your to pick off enemy gunmen in a siege battle where you are the attacker without the sharpshooters even getting shot at.
Here's what I mean: in Shogun 2 & Rise of the Samurai, up until you gain a certain number of provinces, it's pretty much a free-for-all. After you've become too powerful, you'll be declared an enemy of the state and a Realm Divide will happen. What this means is that diplomatic relations with all other clans will deteriorate steadily, even among allies and vassal clans. Meaning they'll turn on you eventually. Good news is that any vassal clans you take after the Realm Divide occurs will not suffer this diplomatic penalty, which'll be pretty helpful in ensuring that you get a lot of income from trade.
In FOTS, this only applies if you decide to become Independent and attempt to assume personal control of the country yourself, at the expense of both the Emperor and the current Shogun. See, in FOTS, the clans are divided by two religions: Pro-Shogun or Pro-Emperor. And once you get a certain number of territories, you're given the option of either staying true to your current allegiance or going at it alone.
Going at it alone is of course the equivalent of being declared an enemy of the state in the other two campaigns and carries the same challenges. By staying true to either the Emperor or the Shogun, all those of the same allegiance will stop being your enemies and become your friends, while all those of the other will become your enemies. This of course creates two blocks of clans fighting for control of the campaign map, with the Imperialists being in the south and the Shogunate supporters in the north. And your objective is to conquer the opposing allegiance's territory and ensure that both Kyoto & Edo stay/fall into allied hands.
Honestly though, I'd recommend just getting all them. They're all awesome.
I had a small feeling it was a lot more gun-focused than I'd originally thought, thanks for clearing that up :)