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Send trade ships to the north trade node as quickly as possible and keep a fleet of kobayas blocking the strait. That position will allow you to prevent the Ouchi from crossing to your island, while being close enough to protect the trade node from pirates and your port from blockades.
For the land part, the Ito and Shimazu will be at war and one of them will win quickly and then turn to you. So you have to be ready to be attacked from the south. The Sagara should stay put long enough.
It's a matter of balancing protecting/invading both the Ito/Shimazu and the Shoni. Personally, I go for the south first, but they'll be a series of tough fights.
Upgrade one of your provinces to level 3 asap, I cant remember which one is more important. level 3 castles are very easy to defend with minimal garrison and AI can't do anything in early game to threaten them.
On hard I turtle up in Buzen as much as I can and draw the AI into attacking my castles, but often Sagara or Ito will attack Bungo from the west or south, so I keep a small army there as well.
Matchlocks help kill a lot of troops in siege defenses. Once the AI armies are destroyed then I take their land. Main thing to do is take out Shoni ASAP, but they have a tendency to hide big armies around Tsukushi, so it can take a while to beat them down. Ouchi will soon attack you from the east, so you need to be ready in Buzen again with a good army to destroy them. At this point you could probably make peace with Ouchi and focus on consolidating Kyushu, Ouchi will be very weak at this point and will probably get wiped out by other clans around it.
If the other Kyushu clans don't declare war on you, you can use missionaries to easily cause rebellions in their lands, either to annoy them into declaring war on you or so you can take their lands after the rebels take over. Build up the very fertile farms in Kyushu, put metsukes in your richest provinces, trade horses with everyone.
At this point you can exploit the fact that Christianity is easy mode. Use missionaries to cause constant rebellions on Honshu and you can literally turn the entire map into rebel provinces. European trade ships can help you take and hold the trade nodes around Kyushu and easily wipe out any AI garbage boats that try to blockade your ports.
Given how powerful the Otomo become, you'd be forgiven for thinking that their start would be relatively easy. As you have discovered, it proves to be a bit tricky.
But there is a way to make it very easy to take out the Shoni.
Turn 1:
> Build a sake den in Bungo. This will give you a ninja that will be your eyes.
> Move Daimyo, yari ashigaru, matchlock ashigaru and missionary from Bungo to Buzen.
> Recruit bow kobaya, matchlock and yari ashigaru in Bungo (or whatever you can afford).
> Move matchlock kobaya to secure cotton trade node.
> It is perhaps worth getting an alliance with the Sagara, I don't normally do this as I like to conquer Kyushu in a hurry, but I just tried it and it seems ok. They will eventually turn on you when they can no longer expand but for short term it is a good move. If you don't ally them, the Shoni probably will and you will have another problem to deal with. To get the alliance give your son as a hostage and offer them a few turns military access. Don't invite them to join your war though or they will take all the Shoni lands that you are after.
The aim here is to leave Bungo comparatively undefended so that the Shoni will attack there rather than Buzen.
Turn 2:
> Build a harbour in Buzen (will allow recruitment of bow kobaya and trade ship in same turn and can later be upgraded as you will benefit from your nanban port in Buzen rather than Bungo).
> Recruit a few more units (trade ship, yari ashigaru - whatever you fancy).
Pro-Tip: You don't need a fleet to blockade the strait between Buzen and Honshu. A single boat is all that is required. Yes, it will get chased off, even sunk sometimes (so be sure to have a replacement ready to go from Buzen harbour). But, the AI must be geared to plan its moves such that army movement precedes naval movement, as I have never seen an army cross the strait after having my boat chased away.
Subsequent Turns:
> Recruit ninja and send him into Tsukushi.
> Keep recruiting units and boats.
Once you have located the Shoni doomstack, keep your eyes on it. Around Summer of 1546, it will head for Bungo, through the forest. Give it a turn to get into the trees, then attack Tsukushi.
I typically have my army in Buzen defending the river crossing rather than in the fort. The Shoni have a lot of archers that would cause too many casualties defending the fort. It also has my army closer to the fort in Tsukushi, ensuring that i reach it in one move.
Pro-Tip: The Shoni sometimes leaves a small force in ambush just before the fort in Tsukushi. It is worth sending a sacrificial yari ashigaru ahead of your army to spring the ambush, but be sure it ends its move off the road so that it does not impede the movement of your main army.
The fort in Tsukushi will have just a garrison and is easily taken. Move your missionary in to start converting the population. Try to take the province without damaging it, so that you can recruit a unit here. Move your army onward as you want to attack Hizen next turn.
The Shoni army may turn back and make it into Tsukushi province, they will not reach your army or block its route to Hizen. They may continue with their march towards your fort in Bungo, they cannot reach that.
Attack and capture Hizen to eliminate the Shoni and their army, being outside their final province (Hizen) is eliminated without need for a battle.
I just played these turns out and it works out nicely. My next move would be a monastery building in Buzen for another missionary, markets in Hizen and Tsukushi and start preparing for war with the Ito.
I am already at war with the Shimazu - they declared war on my ally (Sagara) but they are no threat to me at the moment as they are at war with the Ito and Sagara as well as me.
Casualties taken against the Shoni: Zero for Tsukushi (archers shot and killed garrison); I lost about 30 men taking Hizen (auto-resolved because I couldn't be bothered). Which is not a bad trade for two of the best provinces on Kyushu.
I'll have to juggle units and tax exemption between Tsukushi and Hizen for a bit, until religious unrest is sorted, but that will also give me time to get ready for war with Ito.
And that's how you out-smart the AI.
[Edit]
This screenshot shows my army on the bridge between Buzen and Tsukushi. The Shoni doomstack is heading for Bungo. I have been tracking it for a couple of turns. I let it move another turn, so I know it can only make it back to this position at best, then launch my attack on Tsukushi.
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3102199860
Hot damn i gotta give this a try.
Turn 1 - Sake Den in Buzen
Turn 2 - Chapel in Bungo
This puts your ninja in Tsukushi a couple of turns earlier. By the way, don't have him do anything other than observe, if he starts sabotaging things for experience, the AI is likely not going to move out of the province. If he is spotted, move him just out of the province and back in again. That way they will have to detect him again.
It also puts the Chapel where it will be spreading Christianity to other provinces on Kyushu rather than onto Honshu. Your early missionaries will be busy converting provinces and not have the skills to incite revolts during the conquest of Kyushu - which is a job for your military. Meanwhile, you want Honshu free of Christianity so that you can just incite revolts to your hearts content when it is time to invade. The lower the presence of Christianity in a province, the higher the chance of success for incitement.
Also, moving units from Bungo to Buzen, it probably makes more sense to take the archer and yari and leave the matchlock. The archer will be more useful for killing retainers in forts without losing men.
If you have not tried Legendary difficulty, this is a good one to try it on. This start makes it easy to get Tsukushi and Hizen provinces with little to no loss. Once you have these, take on Ito, their home province is usually undefended, and chase around to Satsuma - try to get there before Sagara do if they are also in the war. This is enough to get them to cancel the alliance and you will have 10 turns to prepare for war with them which will be a breeze because you will be knee deep in koku by this time.
Securing Tsukushi and Hizen guarantees you Kyushu; securing Kyushu guarantees you the game. It doesn't get much easier than this one.
Go for it.
Took a while to figure out, but It really is as simple as that.
It's Sun Tzu 101:
"You can be sure of succeeding in your attacks if you only attack places which are undefended. You can ensure the safety of your defence if you only hold positions that cannot be attacked."
ive followed closely after like 3 different guides on youtube but never managed to succeed using them, hopefully yours is the best kind stranger
Sounds good.
A good strategy going forward is to focus your tech on getting Tea Ceremony and Calligraphy. The Diplomatic boost will off-set the penalty for being Christian and stop everyone hating you.
Get yourself a source of horses (Higo or Suo province, or the trade node up near Izumo, and you will be able to trade with most clans, further improving your relationship with the other clans.
Before you know it, everyone will be your friend, then you will have a really easy campaign.
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3083949088
Edit: Otomo are a good clan to focus on these techs. They make so much money that getting military techs and/or economic techs doesn't need to be a priority.
Nothing goes together better than Christians and guns.