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It might be more forgiving on easier settings, but it is better to understand why the AI is declaring war on you.
The AI declares war on you for one of these reasons:
1. You occupy one of the provinces that another major (playable) factions requires for victory.
2. You are blocking all of their land expansion routes towards Kyoto.
3. They have a lower relationship with you than with any other neighbour.
4. You are significantly weaker than any other neighbour.
5. You declare war on a clan they are allied with.
Playing as Takeda, if you own Kazusa, Musashi, Sagami, Shimosa or Izu province, the Hojo will eventually declare war on you - these are provinces they require for victory.
Playing as Takeda, if you own (for example) Suruga, South Shinano and Etchu provinces; Hojo will eventually declare war on you because they have no expansion route by land towards Kyoto.
Use diplomacy to improve your relationship with a clan. You need to be careful though. Some actions (alliance, marriage for example), improve relations with one clan but damage relations with other clans.
Actions that improve relations without harming others include trade agreement - takes a while, but is very powerful long term relationship modifier. Trade is practically guaranteed if you have horses. The Takeda start with horses and should trade with all their neighbours from Turn 1 to start improving relations.
Giving a child as hostage in order to secure an agreement is a big boost to relations - but be careful which clan you do this with - Check the Daimyo integrity on the Diplomacy screen and avoid any that are not at least Sufficient.
Don't declare war on clans with allies. This will lead to widespread relationship penalties because their allies will join and, because you are now at war with multiple clans, you get a relationship penalty with any clan that is friendly with them. Like ripples from a stone dropped in a pond, the deterioration in your relationship spreads and you will find it hard to recover from this.
It is better to join an ally's war than to start your own. This prevents the target's allies becoming involved in the war and means you don't get the war against a friendly clan penalty (I think).
Look at the factors affecting the relationship between your neighbours and see what you can do to manipulate them to expand in a different direction.
Any time you make an agreement, attach conditions. If they are willing to ally with you, make it a condition that they break their alliance with another clan. If they want to trade with you, as well as money, see if you can break their alliance with another clan. And so on.
The problem is that the AI will often reform a broken alliance with an AI clan the turn after it was broken, with a big boost to their relationship. You can prevent this by allying with clan A, having them break alliance with clan B and you declaring war, (or better still, joining clan D's war) against clan B. This prevents clan A from reforming their alliance with clan B the next turn because they cannot ally with the enemy of an ally.
So, timing of these actions (alliances, war declarations, trade agreements) can be useful.
If an AI clan has a better relationship with you, than with any other neighbour; and you don't block their land expansion towards Kyoto or occupy any of their victory provinces; they will attack one of their other neighbours.
Diplomacy and relationships is the least well used element of the game and yet, once you can master it, it is the most powerful.
On weakness, this is the least likely reason for a clan to attack you compared to the others. I have deleted all my armies except 4 or 5 generals and waited to see who would attack me. I had to wait something like 20 turns before my neighbour realised my weakness and decided to threaten me - and that was on Legendary difficulty. This was because I had built good relations with everyone through trade.
A final note on vassals. Before becoming Shogun, create vassals in emergency only. They will betray you at Realm Divide and get you into wars that you do not want or need. Create them to kick out the armies of a large enemy to buy yourself a few turns of respite. After becoming shogun, create vassals everywhere you can - I typically end a domination campaign with 20+ vassals. They are great to trade with and each quickly provides a full stack army to fight your wars and makes the run to end game very easy.
Lots of information there but, if you master the art of diplomacy, you will be playing the game on legendary difficulty like it was easy mode :)
I find with Takeda you have to make shifts permanently to high, then very high tax after your able to tank the malus to public order if you want to somewhat keep up with the AI.... Their territory's aren't the best eco wise and its easy to become stagnated.
On hard if you border another clan then you have to be wary about them. I find that often when I take a new province, whoever my new neighbor is will declare war on me after a turn or two. I always try to get a second army as soon as I can to protect my borders, and a third army when I can afford it. I find that the AI always knows where your armies are, and if they know that you only have one army on the western side of your lands, some clan will attack you in the east. If you had a second army in the east then they're more likely to leave you alone there.
Diplomacy is important in Shogun 2 but the AI behavior doesn't always make sense. As Takeda everyone will trade with you for your horses so that's useful because trade agreements increase diplomacy standing. Some clans will just have a random bee in their bonnet though and refuse to ever trade with you, but then 50 turns later will suddenly beg for a trade agreement. Even if a clan doesn't want to attack you, if they fear you then they might influence other clans to stop trading with you, so you have less money.
Other clans don't like it when you expand "too fast," which is annoying because clans will keep declaring war on you, then you take their lands and the other clans dislike you even more. You just kind of have to ignore this.
As Takeda I find that if I ally with Hojo on turn 1, they will usually stay allies with me for quite a while. This leaves my southern flank fairly secure so that I can go north and take some land and probably wipe out Uesugi. I used to ignore the north and just anticipate that Hojo would attack me, so I'd put my army in eastern Kai and wait for them to declare war on me, then go wipe them out. In my last few Takeda campaigns I've allied with Hojo on turn 1 and found that they left me alone for a long time.
In general Takeda is pretty easy for diplomacy, everyone wants to trade with them and nobody really hates them. It's not like Uesugi or Ikko Ikki where everyone around you will invade you from every angle after a few turns. Getting tea ceremony and calligraphy really help to keep other clans off your back and trading with you.
oh, it's not really about the difficulty, i think i have been away from the game for too long is all... think i do understand it and WHY they declared war, the question was more about the absolute unpredictability of the AI, like, fair enough uesugi needing a province i have... but if i have good relations with uesugi and i make a trade deal in one turn, them breaking it immediately and declaring war the moment i click end turn is a bit of a turn off, it makes me feel like the ai behaves more like an obstacle for me than a clan with actual interests...
the thing is that this seems to be just how the ai behaves really, i've started a campaign in normal and it's the same thing, they still immediately break treaties that i just made and declare wars the turn after i made a deal, they are just less aggressive and have fewer armies... oh well..
But thank you for the tips, tho!
There are reasons why the AI breaks a trade deal.
It is sometimes because another AI clan has made it a condition of an agreement between them that they embargo you. For example, if you make a trade deal with clan A, then during the end turn, clan B makes an alliance with clan A with the condition that they embargo you; this will break the trade deal.
Clans will also break the trade deal if they are planning to attack you. By making the deal, they can 'see' into your territory - just as you can see into theirs. If they have their own source of horses, or are getting them from a trade deal with another clan, they will break the deal.
Also, it is sometimes the case that the deal is broken through no fault of theirs. A sea trade route can be blockaded at either end and that may lead them to break it. A land trade route can be terminated because a clan is besieging their home province.
There is usually a reason for the termination of the trade route, but as players, we usually don't bother to look into it and just accept that it happened.
Also when it comes to trade, remember that trade also allows them to see some of your territory. Clans like the Hojo and the Hattori will accept trade, but only to see what you got. If it looks like you are weak, they will declare war on the next turn. The Takeda will do this too, if you are the Uesugi. I have learned not to trade with clans that are going to end up as enemies for this very reason. The game makes you think you need lots of money and trade is a good thing. It is, but it is also a two edged sword. You too can use trade to scout out a potential enemy before declaring war on them. It just takes a lot of time to do nothing and really study how the A.I does diplomacy with you, then you can get a better understanding of how politics worked during this time period in Japan.
Was playing Date last time and by turn 15 Hojo had *9* provinces. He and Takeda were both coming at me by turn 20 on 2 diff fronts, both with double stacks, like... fk XD
Agents and Generals with Night fighter skills take care of multiple stack AI forces.
Also, river crossing defence, a single army can probably take down 3 or 4 enemy stacks in a battle.
And of, course ambushes.
There is also the option of letting them capture a province. That way you can isolate an enemy army in the fort while you take care of the other one without them able to reinforce the battle.
Many options for dealing with it.
Was looking forward to defending a crossing with my single Chosokabe army against about 8 stacks of Ikko Ikki, but they were scared off by the couple of units I had in the fort.
https://steamcommunity.com/id/markeason/screenshot/1868431426824490833/