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I mean feel free to play the game any way you want, but if the purpose of the question is to ask if you can "win the game" that's easily answered: look at the victory conditions the game clearly states for you and you have your answer.
In no great surprise to anyone, the answer is no.
This sounds a really interesting challenge you have set yourself.
Are you allowing yourself to take any provinces, if so, how many - and are they particular provinces or just a number?
If the number of provinces you can capture is not limited, you will eventually trigger Realm Divide at which point the shogunate and everyone will eventually declare war on you.
You could still play to try to stop anyone else taking Kyoto, even if you were at war with the Ashikaga (they won't leave Kyoto to attack you).
The biggest problem I think is that, if you are not able to take more land, then it will be a lot of turns of defensive battles.
It is certainly possible to take all of Japan and leave the shogunate intact, but they will be at war with you - even though they remain in Kyoto.
As others have stated, the game will not give you a win for this, but I don't think that is what interests you. To me it seems you are just looking for a different challenge - in which case, it should be fun.
In general if you are located near Kyoto it's a good idea to ally with Ashikaga so you can travel through the Kyoto province. It saves you having to go slowly through the mountainous and forested areas south of Kyoto, like Iga. It's extremely useful for Hattori to ally with Ashikaga right at the beginning of a campaign for this reason.
And (as you pointed out to me for which I am eternally grateful) it gets you insane unit replenishment :)
I think that may depend on one (or a combination) of three things. Either game difficulty, how long it takes the player to get to the point they can take Kyoto and whether the clan is major (playable) or minor.
I don't think I have ever seen a minor clan become shogun, even though I have often seen one of them do very well in the game. So taking Kyoto and becoming Shogun may not be highly prioritised for them.
If it is only prioritised by the major (playable) clans, they tend to take each other out quite quickly meaning that, by the time I take Kyoto, there is typically only one or maybe two major clans left that are strong enough to have done so.
Regarding difficulty, I don't think the clans' desire to take Kyoto changes with difficulty but, what changes is the time it takes the player to get into a position to do so. This in turn is influenced by the number of major clans they need to pass through. For example, playing as a more distant (from Kyoto) clan, such as the Uesugi, or the Date, it takes longer to get into position than if playing as a central clan. Depending how aggressively I expand with these clans, I reckon the shogunate is taken before me most games on the harder game difficulties.
For the other clans, it is generally easier to get to Kyoto and so the situation arises less often - though I have had it happen when I turtled for a long time to get a late tech to unlock a unit I wanted to try for my army.
Interestingly, in spite of having seen major expansion by them, I don't think I have ever seen an Ikko Ikki or Otomo shogunate from the A.I. Maybe they are not able to do so.
After all, that would just be wrong :)
In regards to the OP question, yeah it is possible to defend the Ashikaga shogunate, however defending it on the late game can be harder on harder difficulties since fighting 10+ full stacks from the east and from the west can be brutal. On harder and lower difficulties, yeah that is possible and it isn't challenging.
The biggest pain is the Leased Land they leave you in just about every province.
Thankfully it's not often that they survive in the game :)
I dont expand. I just keep Iga and defend Kyoto. Staying little and focusing all my recources on Kyoto and Iga only makes it possible for me to defeat multiple enemy stacks. But wave after wave my budget and troops get eaten. Thats the point where I loose it. Economy and Hattori hits too hard.
I don't think that would be possible then. Not without using every exploit known to man in the battles :)
You are also limited to only 1 ninja and get little in the way of bonuses to your units from Iga province.
Only having Iga province, which is a low wealth province, won't support much military.
Maybe you should allow yourself to have the three ninja clan provinces - Iga, Ii and Omi. At least the other two are high wealth and can give you some income - as well as a couple more ninja
They build it in literally every province. I use a mod that lets me demolish leased land, because the AI is able to build LL everywhere without suffering any public order penalty due to low honor. If I did that I'd be facing constant rebellions especially considering most provinces wouldn't be converted to christianity for quite a while.
Agents are a big advantage for the Hattori because they are able to recruit level 3 ninja (Iga or Kii), monks (Yamoto) and metsuke (Settsu) before any other clan. They should use this to their advantage.
They have no resources to trade and no access to the trade nodes, so their economy is going to be tax of province wealth - so they need high wealth provinces Kii, Yamoto and Settsu are all good with a metsuke in them to increase tax rate. Ignore Omi province in the early game, every clan wants that and will fight you for it.
The Ikko Ikki will arrive with their monks and generals spreading their religion, but your ninja can take care of them.
And your monks can protect your ninja from enemy metsuke.
There is an easy opening move that gets the Hattori to 5 provinces in 4 - 6 turns (it is better to take 6 turns, otherwise the diplomatic penalty for expansion may cause clans to declare war on you). I wrote a guide about it if you want an easy start.
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2632928722
Beware of the Bessho, Hatano and Sakai clans. They all have Daimyos that start with a random personality and this affects their behaviour and your ability to make diplomatic agreements with them.