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There is however a trick to changing the outcome. ;)
And if I'm not mistaken it's mandated as a forum rule that every other thread in an xcom forum must be a complaint about missing a shot with 90+% chance to hit.
Returning to the Original Post - obviously there is a 13% chance of failure for the sabotage act. You state that your agent had points in running away - was this Avoid Detection skill or Escape skill?
Was there a Metsuke stacked with the army being sabotaged?
With appropriate skills, your agent should have very low odds of being executed if caught, far more likely to go be arrested and imprisoned for a short period.
If there was a metsuke with the army, it is best to remove that with a monk, before attempting the sabotage by ninja. The presence of a metsuke increases the likelihood of detection, apprehension and execution of your ninja on those 13 times in 100 that he fails this mission.
If you don't mind me asking, can you recall exactly where the points were spent in the ninja's skill tree.
To be level 5 and have points in both escape and avoid detection intrigues me, (I never put points into these, but do take retainers that boost them).
At level 5, you will have spent 8 points on skills. I am guessing:
1 point in Saboteur to unlock Misdirection
3 points in Misdirection to maximise Army Sabotage
Which leaves 4 points to go elsewhere, of which 3 must have been spread over Spy, Infiltrator and Master of Disguise in order to get both Escape and Avoid Detection skills.
Is that correct?
2 points Assassin
1 point Exotic Weapons
1 point Poisoner
2 points Notorious Killer
I find that works very well for my ninjas for Sabotaging Armies / Assassination - which are the most useful traits in the way that I use them.
Was you ninja executed when he failed the sabotage attempt, or was it after failing that he was taken out by the level 1 Metsuke? I am struggling to understand from the thread what happened.
In other words, if he was taken out by the Metsuke, this would also have happened if he had succeeded in sabotaging the army, so has nothing to do with the 80+% chance of success, but is down to the level 1 Metsuke's abilities