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That can't be, I'm playing ROTS short campaign and have only like 13 provinces and have hit RD.
It happens when your "fame meter" fills up. Winning strong victories, creating vassals, clan development, missions/events, and other things can fill the meter, and these have the same weight in both Long and Short campaigns.
However, the main way the meter fills is by province count. Generally, it works out that when you have achieved about 50% of the required province count, Realm Divide is triggered.
So, all other things being equal, this will tend to happen at 10-14 provinces for Short campaigns, and at 15-20 for Long campaigns, because those numbers are roughly 50% of the 25 and 40 province requirements, respectively.
This means that, depending on your play style, you could actually start RD at the same time whether Long or Short, i.e. about 14 provinces.
It's usually easier to then go on to blitz with Short because the map size, movement points, number of stacks, etc. remains identical regardless of the lower province requirement. It's easier to blitz and quickly grab your last 10 or so provinces post RD, especially if you have pushed your borders near to Kyoto, than it is to try and blitz for 20-25 remaining provinces.
Again, I'd stress that getting victories and such is still weighed identically, so if you try to turtle, with the idea that you'll blitz the end, you could get in a jam by fighting too many defensive wars, resulting in lots of defensive feats and beating the AI back, and thus high fame. I triggered RD a couple times with only 8 or 9 provinces on Long, meaning I had to get about 30 provinces during RD lol.
And, just for thoroughness sake, please don't forget RD will trigger whenever you make war on the Ashikaga or take Kyoto, regardless of how few provinces you have or how low your fame is. Doing either of those things is "insta fame meter fill" and instant RD. ;)
My answer regards the basic game only and for the longest game (60 provinces to conquer).