my pazaak strategy

[parogen]

-----final update/summary
I was able to get 50% wr with three +/-2's, two of each +/-3/4/5, one +/-6. You will have to read the ramblings to know how I play, but ultimately it's counting outs and doing the math based on circumstances, and getting free cards mostly hitting on <=18.
When opponent has cards, settling on 19 for free is fine, but you want to look to make 20 otherwise. Don't use cards for 19 when you bust (when opponent has >=2 cards). There is no simple strategy I can sum up, it depends on your hand, the opponent's hand count, what number is on the table, and counting outs. The strategy I describe for the 'improve up to +2' implies the computer has the same benefit, that is why you don't want to waste side deck on 19 from bust.

That is where all the decisions come from, assuming the best of the computer even though they make mistakes like standing on 18/19 and using plus side to make 19's. When you play better, the computer by default must play better because it's given a defined goal (your standing value). Pazaak starts when one player stands/busts, which means that you going first technically makes the ai play better, because they get free information more often. Because I was able to achieve 50% wr, I think that's a good thing (despite others complaining), since I already explain multiple times (or you can compare yourself) how the ai strategy, when they have to stand first, is pretty subpar.
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Imo, there isn't much strategy in Pazaak until either you hit a 19/20, go over 20, or your opponent stands. I don't think you can get 50% wr because you always go first (and going first means you are forced to stand before your opponent does more than not).

At 14, you have a 60% chance to improve without cards. So everything 14 and below doesn't really matter, you just hit imo. That also means that 40% of the time on 14, you bust. There are only 4 cards that help to get 20 when you bust on 14, +/- 1-4. That proves to me +/-5 and above has slightly less value (not to mention the +6 part of +/-6 has even less value because then you would waste this opportunity to get a free card on 14). At 15, +/-6 still has less value since it only provides one out for 19 and can't help make 20. But from 16-18 (see later why not 19), all cards can save you. So to recap, you hit on 14 always regardless of hand, but for 15-18, all cards help in the chance of a bust, except on 15 where +/-6 only provides one out to make 19.

But here's the thing, start to evaluate the game on "improve up to +X". To improve up to +1 (on 19), you need 5 different minus cards (to make 20) to even be 60%, which you can only have 4 in a game. This is why I actually think 19 is good enough, even though it sucks when the opponent uses a +/-1 on a 19 or 21 to get 20 (or just in general when they make 20 when you stood on 19).

So the name of the game is improve up to +2, which means you hit even on 18, as long as the opponent hasn't stood AND you have the cards to cover the range to be above 50%. You can easily do this with two cards above a 1 and at least 2 difference apart. In brackets is the cards that meets the requirement for improve up to +2 using -2 and -4, for the side deck card to use:

none: [1] [2] 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-2: 1 2 [3] [4] 5 6 7 8 9 10
-4: 1 2 3 4 [5] [6] 7 8 9 10

The example uses -2 and -4, as they are both above 1 and the difference is at least 2 (so that they don't overlap). But with any cards above 1 (or should I say below, since I am referring to minuses?), as long as they have a difference of at least 2, it will be fine. So -3 and -5 works, or -2 and -6. As long as we are talking about improve up to +2. This is why +/-1 actually SUCKS, which is ironic considering it's the most expensive card. You just remember all the times the opponent used a +/-1 at the right time. +/-1 can only ever provide one out, and you need 4 other outs as mentioned earlier, if you goal is to improve by 1 60% of the time.

What is the strategy? Hit when <=18, as long as you have two cards of difference at least 2 and the opponent hasn't stood on 20. If not, you have to actually play conservative and make 20 using plus whenever you can (because your chances are less than 50% then since you can not make 19). Standing on 19 for free is fine, but using a card to make 19 when the opponent hasn't stood is NOT advisable. At best, the opponent ties with a side deck card, at worst they win on 20 for free, and inbetween they can still win on 20 with side deck card, trading side deck but you lost a point. Again, as long as you have two +/- cards with difference at least 2 (and obviously if they are above +/-1), you should always hit, even on 18. You need as much free cards as you can get, since side deck is your resource, and this strategy optimizes that. With this strategy, you will find that the playstyle changes from "trade side deck cards" to just playing out the free cards. You will be surprised when you end up with cards still and the opponent ran out of theirs. Or even losing with a near full hand. That is because you are actually utilizing the free cards correctly, instead of gimping your chances by using pluses. It just means you got unlucky that time, but it is still optimal play imo.

What about improve up to +3? Improve up to +3 (on 17) is super easy, just one minus card that is >=3 for 60%. The problem is that improve up to +2 is also easy as mentioned above, so that nullifies the part of the range that only gets you 18. So I think you are forced to play the improve up to +2 game, until either player doesn't have two cards with difference of at least 2. So when the opponent has at least two cards left, you're always under the threat of them getting to 19/20, unless you have see-through goggles (or maybe paying close attention) and know they don't have two cards with difference at least 2.

The deck ends up being made up of +/-2-6, since +/-6 is good 16-18 and subpar only on 15. You want a spread to avoid getting unlucky stacking on too many of one card (and they are nearly equally valuable anyway). So I am thinking two of each +/-2-5, one +/-6 and the last card is up to you.
EITHER +/-2 because -4 is not as useful on <13, -5 is not as useful on <14 and -6 is not as useful on <15 and not even +6 is useful on 14 when it is worth hitting for a free card, which means +/-2 is more useful than +/-3 in this logic because +/-2 maintains the difference of 2 with +/-4/5/6, for a total of five cards of this deck compared to choosing +/-3/4.
OR +/-6 because you think 3/4 cases is good enough that you shouldn't heavily overwhelm the 2 spot (for a balanced hand), but as mentioned, there are less chances to use +/-6 overall (and more chances to use +/-2 for unlucky rolls <15 than the others). At the same time, +/-6 is even better because it matches six cards to make difference of at least 2, two of each +/-2/3/4. It balances the deck after all. The chance of drawing three +/-2's for the first choice seems to be 1/30 if my math is correct. You would have to weigh that against the chance you would end up with an unlucky roll on 11-15 (rolling a 10 on 11 is one out instead of normal two, and making up for the fact that a +/-6 provides only one out on 15).

In a way, I think this is a better version of the game's deck 3, but the computer often makes mistakes like settling for 18, using pluses for 19/20. They probably have an easier time doing so since they have +/-1-4 and can use them more often on unlucky draws <=14 (but the +/-1's are no good and they stack too many +/-2's). I still think getting free cards is worth more, especially since we have to play first. The thing is once you play better, you give the opportunity for the computer to play more optimally as well. Because now you force them to only go for 19/20 (which means they go for free cards more, especially if it's vs your 20), and they have the information advantage. It is all because you go first that you can't get a good wr!

TL;DR
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The main disadvantage comes from you going first, because the game starts when one player stands. That's why the game feels hard, because you probably can't get >=50% wr always going first.
Make a deck that doesn't include +/-1. Two of each +/-2-5, one +/-6 and the last choice is either another +/-2 or +/-6.
Unless the opponent has stood on 19/20 or you don't have two cards with a difference of at least 2, hit on <=18 and ONLY use minuses to make 20 (that means ditching even if you can make 19). Otherwise, you can use pluses to make 20. As long as your opponent has at least 2 cards, DON'T use side deck to make <=19 unless the opponent stood on <=19 themself just to get the point back. And there, it still means using minuses to make 19 unless you do not have the two card difference of at least 2, then you can use plus.
Once your opponent has one card left, it's kind of up to you. If he has a +/- card >=3, you probably still have to go for 19/20, but you can start using pluses to make 20 (19 too if you have point advantage) regardless of whether they stood or not.
If opponents have no cards left, try to stand on 18-20. 17 is icky but you might have to if you yourself have no cards. I think you don't use pluses to make 18 here, only for 19/20.
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The wr is like 35-40% if I'm being honest. And this is the wr I have without the +/-6 because I didn't buy it in Taris. I will eventually get it and implement the deck I propose.. 😅 (just missing the +/-6, replaced with a +/-5 and using extra +/-2, which for all intents and purposes is the correct build based on my strategy with +/-6 being unavailable)

Another thing, I mention to not use side deck to even make 19. But I think you can if you have an unbalanced hand. If you have 2 2 3 5, 2 2 3 are overbalanced on the low end, because if you use the 5, then you are left with no two cards with difference of at least 2. So If you can, make 19 using -2 or -3, or make 20 using plus side. The chances of you needing to use 5 will ruin the hand anyway (and it is likely, since the chances are relatively equal, or not different enough to think you will run into using -2 twice as much as -5, etc), so I would say it makes sense to start playing conservative with overbalanced part of the hand.

And also, you are going for 19/20. Even if the opponent stands on 18, if you have the two cards with at least difference of 2, you still want to hit on <=18 for a chance at a free card. Whether you play conservative is dictated by your hand being overbalanced. Only when the opponent stands on 20 does that dictate the outs required changes from 19/20 to being only 20.

UPDATE
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So I played Furko Nellis which I believe has the 3rd deck, and he's playing for fun (no money) for 58 games. I started with a deck of +/-2-6 two each for 14 games. However, I really didn't like how the 6's played. Because while they are good if you have +/-2/4/6 hand, they are really bad once you actually start using side deck cards. That is because when you have to 'play conservative' you have to use +6 on 14 for 20 if it's still in your hand (which 14 is free cards remember). That and when you have 2 6's, it's the worst. It's a small sample size, but the score is W/L 5-9, not great.

I then switched to the three 2's and one 6 variant and had a W/L of 25-19. That or you can say I got better once I switched the deck. If you take the second deck, I was approaching 50-55% wr, but if you include even the deck I think is not great, as just my overall strategy/skill, I was able to approach 50% wr.

Eventually, you just have to start counting the odds and I think my improvement shows that 50% wr is feasible, contrary to what I originally believed!

A few things I learn:

I rescind my 'improve up to +1 is bad'. There are niche scenarios where you should hit on 19, or where only 20 is your out. When you have a full hand with all unique numbers, you have a 50% chance of hitting 20 (more if you are <=18). You should take the 50% because 10% is a free 20, which means that's 4/5 cards for 1 point for that 50%. When you and your opponent have a full hand (and you have all unique values), you might want to consider hitting on 19!

There are other cases where it comes up. Say you have 2 3 4 and on 16 and have to hit 20. Your outs are 4 (free), 6, 7, 8. BUT don't forget 1 and 2! These don't result in standing, but they are essentially the same as the current scenario, and you can choose to use +2 or +3 too! So this is 60% chance of being able to make 20, with it really being 5/6 cards for 1 point. But that chance to get a free 20 is what you are looking for.

Once you start to count the odds and do the math yourself, there are plenty of chances to take to push the edge. And you really really only want to use side deck for 20 (when your opponent has at least two cards), once you understand the odds of going for 20 are not as bad as I thought, or rather that the odds of a free card is that much more valuable. That is because ultimately, 20 is a guaranteed point (in where the opponent must make 20 to take back the point), whereas 19 is not guaranteed. So even though I originally thought you can settle on 19, if you take into account the fact that once you play better, your opponent is also automatically forced to play optimally, then you really should look to make 20 if the math checks out and your opponent still has cards left.

Furthermore, there is room to include +/-1 if you really want, in replace of that extra +/-2. That would mean two of +/-2-5, one of each +/-1/6. If 20 is really that important, it might make it worth it so that there are more chances to spread the starting hand, instead of getting the dreaded triple 2's. But I'm not sure because if you never use the +/-1, it's like the +/-6. There are downsides during gameplay with +/-1 because it can only provide one out, once you and your opponent use up your cards and are forced to play conservatively (when you start to accept standing on 19, and eventually 17/18).

[Savior]

Always enjoyed this version of space-blackjack. If you win 10 pazak matches against the Irodian on the yavin space station he will give you acess to his hidden stock in shop + discounts. His stock reshuffles after each found star map so unlock early and visit him between planets. Stuff expensive though you can use save-game editor to simply add credits to your character, if you want to make your team OP and because I think there is not even enough credits ingame that you can earn legitimly to buy every hidden-stock item after each shuffle . Wouldnt recommend to cheat credits on first playthrough but you do you and if you do , then install the improved A.I mod so enemies use consumes like hp-packs + grenades. Plus ultimate difficulty mod - to balance things out you know, otherwise the game gets boring ^^

[parogen]

It is not 10 matches in a row. As my rambling hopefully proves I understand the game, I doubt anyone can get even over 60/70% wr. That would mean you have to win a high number of times when you have the disadvantage (stand/bust first), which rng wouldn't favor you and it's a game of chance after all. Ironically, the dumb part about Suvam Tan is that after you get the discount, he reverts to deck 1 when he plays for fun.

For all the talk about how so and so is "impossible to beat", he was the same difficulty as Furko Nellis. Both playing deck 3 (Suvam before you get discount, Furko Nellis continues with deck 3 for fun), and there is no difference in AI or 'luck'. So the computer doesn't cheat at all. I was even above 50% wr after getting the discount, but it's a small sample size since after that he plays deck 1 at which point I stopped playing.