Ghost Chances

[Mackenzie]

So who's the guy claiming ghost cards are 1/1000 in normal packs and 1/500 in destiny packs?

Just opened 20 full brown boxes of destiny card packs and only got 3 ghost cards. On a sample size that large, it seems pretty clear that the 1/500 is some completely made up BS. Friend also opened 6 boxes and got 0 ghosts.

[Joeyramone]

chance "a possibility of something happening."

theres also the possibility of never getting one......or getting one every time. its chance

[Skinny White Guy]

20 boxes times 64 cards per is 1,280 so 3 ghosts is good odds. 6 boxes times 64 cards per is 384, which is perfectly normal to have no ghosts in.

[Mackenzie]

Originally posted by Joeyramone:

chance "a possibility of something happening."

theres also the possibility of never getting one......or getting one every time. its chance

I'm well aware how random number generation works. On a sample size of 1300 dize rolls to get a ghost on an alleged 1/500 chance, THREE times in a row is so incredibly rare and unlikely that someone like you couldn't possibly fathom just how rare, based on what you just said.

Originally posted by mr.beast4561:

20 boxes times 64 cards per is 1,280 so 3 ghosts is good odds. 6 boxes times 64 cards per is 384, which is perfectly normal to have no ghosts in.

No.. a box is 224 cards (7 cards x 32 card packs). That's just barely over 2 boxes per 'ghost chance'. 20 boxes should statistically grant 8-12 ghosts. To draw only 3 is FAR from a 1/500 chance and having opened thousands of full cardboard boxes already, the odds feel exactly the same as non-destiny boxes, which is the point I'm making this discussion.

Moral of the story is don't believe everything you hear or read. The double chance is completely false.

[Chadillac]

Originally posted by Mackenzie:

So who's the guy claiming ghost cards are 1/1000 in normal packs and 1/500 in destiny packs?

Just opened 20 full brown boxes of destiny card packs and only got 3 ghost cards. On a sample size that large, it seems pretty clear that the 1/500 is some completely made up BS. Friend also opened 6 boxes and got 0 ghosts.

Check out this post for all of the probabilities.

https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3334915504

[Skinny White Guy]

Originally posted by Mackenzie:

Originally posted by mr.beast4561:

20 boxes times 64 cards per is 1,280 so 3 ghosts is good odds. 6 boxes times 64 cards per is 384, which is perfectly normal to have no ghosts in.

No.. a box is 224 cards (7 cards x 32 card packs). That's just barely over 2 boxes per 'ghost chance'. 20 boxes should statistically grant 8-12 ghosts. To draw only 3 is FAR from a 1/500 chance and having opened thousands of full cardboard boxes already, the odds feel exactly the same as non-destiny boxes, which is the point I'm making this discussion.

Moral of the story is don't believe everything you hear or read. The double chance is completely false.

"1/1000 for normal packs" doesn't mean the card is 1/1000 cards. It means it appears in 1/1000 packs.
Understandable confusion, as it wasn't mentioned by the guy you are referring to. Ghost cards work differently, For regular cards, the chances are rolled per card, but as mentioned in the article linked by Chadillac, ghosts work differently, The pack is rolled upon opening as a "ghost pack" which is where the 1/1000 chance comes in, in which case the last card becomes a ghost instead

[Mackenzie]

I see. I just read 1/1000 and 1/500 cards. That makes a lot more mathematical sense. Doesn't explain no double odds off the first 20 boxes so far though.

[Chadillac]

Originally posted by Mackenzie:

No.. a box is 224 cards (7 cards x 32 card packs).

The probability for ghost is per pack, not per card.

[Mackenzie]

Originally posted by Chadillac:

Originally posted by Mackenzie:

No.. a box is 224 cards (7 cards x 32 card packs).

The probability for ghost is per pack, not per card.

Yes, I gathered as much. I appreciate the link to the probability article, thank you!