Card Rarity Probabilities (Update 1.0+)

This guide goes over the probability checks for each rarity of cards in the game, as well as other fun facts about the cards you pull!

This Guide

So, you wanna know how rare that really cool and expensive card you just pulled actually is? Or are you here to find out what the rarest card is?

Either way, this guide goes over the probabilities for each card rarity and the steps the game takes to generate the cards!

As well, I will be going over a few other fun things about the cards that you pull from the packs, such as God Packs, Grading Cards, etc.

(Quick Note: when I say "rarity" I mean the border type. In the code, "rarity" refers to what card pack the card came from, eg Common, Rare, Epic, Legendary. Rarity is more fun to say than "border type" in my opinion.)

Probabilty of Each Card Rarity

Here are the exact probabilities that the code gives for each rarity.

Full Art: 1/400 (0.25%)
EX: 1/100 (1%)
Gold: 1/25 (4%)
Silver: 1/12.5 (8%)
First Edition: 1/5 (20%)

Any Foil: 1/20 (5%)

(For each rarity, getting a foil is a 1/20 on top of it. For example, a Full Art Foil is a 1/400 to get a
Full Art and then a 1/20 for that Full Art to be a Foil, giving a 1/8,000 or 0.0125% chance)

Here's How It Works

The moment you open a pack, the game will randomly generate 7 cards. Each card goes through the following process:
1) Generate a random number between 0 and 10,000.
2) Check if the number is lower than the set probability value for that rarity multiplied by 100. (There is a set value for each rarity, basically the chance out of 100)
3) Repeat once for each rarity.

The first check is always to see if the card will be Foil (1/20).
From there, it'll check for the rarity. It'll check down from Full Art to First Edition. If it succeeds any, it will skip all other checks. If none succeed, it'll default to a Base Card.

The type of card pack does not affect the chances of each rarity. You get the same probability for Common Packs as you do Legendary Packs as you do any Destiny Packs (with the exception of Ghost Packs).

Another thing, there's no sign of any difference between Individual Card Packs and Box Card Packs (Cards from a Box Pack). All packs go through the same code to generate the 7 random cards and rarities.

The Calculated Distribution

If you have any study in probability and statistics, you might notice that with the method of checking each card rarity as stated above, it does depend on the previous result. If the code decided your card is a gold card, it will never try for a silver. So therefore, to get the more common card rarities, it will need to fail each other check before hand.

So after crunching the numbers, the following table shows roughly how many different card rarities you'll get on average out of 10,000 cards and their respective percentage (both rounded to 2 decimal places) and sorted from rarest to most common:

Card Rarity	Number of Cards out of 10k	% Per Card (Rounded)
Full Art Foil	1.25	0.01%
EX Foil	4.99	0.05%
Gold Foil	19.75	0.20%
Full Art	23.75	0.24%
Silver Foil	37.92	0.38%
First Edition Foil	87.22	0.87%
EX	94.76	0.95%
Base Foil	348.87	3.48%
Gold	375.26	3.75%
Silver	720.50	7.21%
First Edition	1,657.14	16.57%
Base	6,628.59	66.29%

Note: this does not take into account ghosts cards or god packs as they are dependent on packs and not individual cards. They wouldn't change the values much anyways.

Ascension Packs

Ascension Packs are pretty much All-In-One packs but with some REALLY FREAKING AWESOME ARTWORKS! (gawd damn they look so cool!)

They behave like any other pack you can open except for the fact that you can open any tier of cards in a single pack, from Basic to Legendary.

The rarities of these cards follow the exact same pattern as regular Tetramon and Destiny packs, including with Foil Cards, God Packs, and Ghost Packs.

The Ascension packs do follow a set of rules though. These rules being:

• You can only ever get a maximum of 4 cards for any one tier. This means that at most you can only ever get 4 Legendaries in a single pack. Basic is the only exception with no maximum.
  
• In the back end, each tier of card has a 25% chance to be picked starting from Legendary and going to Basic. Once a tier is picked, no other rolls will happen. This means that the distribution of the tiers of cards are:
  
  

  Tier	Chance
  Legendary	25%
  Epic	18.75%
  Rare	14.06%
  Basic	42.19%

Ghost Packs and Ghost Cards

For those who don't know, there's a rare set of cards called Ghost Cards.

Each pack that you open has a random chance of being a Ghost Pack (which will contain a single Ghost Card).

If you're opening a Tetramon pack, it's a 1/1,000 chance (0.1%) for it to be a Ghost Pack.
If you're opening a Destiny or Ascension pack, it's a 1/500 chance (0.2%) for it to be a Ghost Pack.

If the check succeeds, the last card in a Ghost Pack will be a guaranteed Ghost Card. It's physically impossible for a Ghost Card to appear in any other slot (unless it's from a God Pack).

There's a 50/50 for it to have a White or Black background and still a 1/20 for it to be a foil.
(A total of 1/20,000 (0.005%) chance for a Foil Ghost Card from a Tetramon Pack or a 1/10,000 (0.01%) from a Destiny/Ascension Pack).

Note: all Ghost Cards are Legendary Full Art cards. You can only get Ghost Packs from level 3 onwards.

God Packs

Credit to Hollowman for bringing this up. I completely missed it in the patch notes, only focusing on the graded cards.

Who doesn't love a god pack? Getting all foiled cards is something that will keep card collectors going. So let's have a look into how often these will pop up for you!

As soon as you open a pack, the game will generate a random number (shocking, I know..) which is called the God Pack Roll Index. This number dictates the minimum card rarity you'll get from a pack. In short, a God Pack does not always get you all foiled full arts but it will give you 7 of the same rarity (and foil)

When the God Pack Roll Index is generated, it'll roll a number between 1 and 100,000. If this value falls between a chosen range, you'll get a god pack. Here's the distribution:

God Pack Roll	Chance %
All Foil Pack	0.2%
1st Edition	0.5%
Silver	0.31%
Gold	0.25%
EX	0.2%
Full Art	0.07%
Ghost Pack	0.05%
Foil 1st Edition	0.12%
Foil Silver	0.1%
Foil Gold	0.05%
Foil EX	0.02%
Foil Full Art	0.009%
Foil Ghost Pack	0.001%

It's important to note that whatever you roll here will be the guaranteed minimum, which means:

• You won't ever get a non-foil card from any foil God Pack and vice versa.
  
• You can still get a Ghost Pack even if you god rolled any other rarity.
  
• If you happen to get a Ghost Pack and any foiled God Pack, the ghost card will be foil too.
  
• You can only get God Packs from level 3 onwards.
  
• Ascension Packs can also be God Packs.

XP From Opening Cards

Did you know that the xp you gain from opening packs all depends on what rarity of cards you get? Well, here's the xp you get per rarity of cards:

Base                  1 Exp
First Edition         2 Exp
Silver                6 Exp
Gold                  8 Exp
Base Foil             8 Exp
EX                   15 Exp
First Edition Foil   16 Exp
Full Art             18 Exp
Ghost                18 Exp
Silver Foil          48 Exp
Gold Foil            64 Exp
EX Foil             120 Exp
Full Art Foil       144 Exp
Ghost Foil          144 Exp

(Credit to user EndOfFile for compiling this list!)

Seeing How Many Packs You've Opened

As of now, there's no easy way to see how many card packs you've opened.
The best way I've found is by using a site called saveeditonline[www.saveeditonline.com].

1. Open saveeditonline[www.saveeditonline.com].
2. Locate your save file: C:\Users\%userprofile%\AppData\LocalLow\OPNeonGames\Card Shop Simulator\savedGames_Release1.gd. (The 1 is the save file, you'll also have 2 or 3 if you've saved into them)
3. Drag and drop or open in browser the save file. The website may say you can't open them but you definitely can.
4. Search for: m_GameReportDataCollectPermanent > cardPackOpened
5. The number next to it is how many packs you've opened!

I'm hoping OPNeon will add in a stats page in the future.

Customer Trading Cards

As of update 0.50, Customers can now sell or trade you cards! What type of card they sell or trade is dependent on your store level, meaning you can't get destiny cards without having unlocked destiny packs and ghost cards will show up more frequently when you are a higher level. That being said, here's the values:

Lvl	Unlocked Pack	Destiny %	Ascension%	Ghost %	Foil Ghost %	Graded %
0	Common	0%	0%	0.4%	0%	0%
5	Rare	0%	0%	0.8%	0%	2%
12	Epic	0%	0%	1.2%	0%	4%
20	Legendary	0%	0%	2%	0.01%	6%
25	Destiny Common	15%	0%	2.4%	0.02%	8%
30	Destiny Rare	25%	0%	2.8%	0.03%	10%
40	Destiny Epic	35%	0%	3.2%	0.04%	12%
50	Destiny Legendary	50%	0%	4%	0.05%	15%
70	Ascension	50%	50%	4.8%	0.06%	18%

The card that is chosen by the customer has an even chance to be any border including foil. So a 1/12 for a base all the way up to a 1/12 for a full art foil. Only exception are ghost cards which I have listed above the rarity for a foiled ghost per pack unlocked.

The grade for any graded cards are uniformly random from grade 1-10 (all evenly likely).

Card Grading

Since v0.60, we've had the ability to grade cards! (WOOOOOOOOO)

Let's go over the chances of getting that sweet sweet grade 10 card!

Grading Chances

On the very day you receive your cards back from the grader, the game will determine each of the cards' grades separately. It's important to note that each service does not affect the grading. You won't get better grades using the faster service.

The way the grades are determined is similar to how the Card Rarity works, in that it'll go from best to worst and keeping the best result. The chances are as follows:

Good Grade: 96%
  10: 40%
  9:  40%
  8:  50%
  7: 50%
  6: 50%
  5: Left over
Bad Grade: 4%
  5:  40%
  4:  50%
  3:  50%
  2:  50%
  1: Left over

Just to break this down, it'll first check if the grade will be good or bad (96% chance to be good). It'll then check a 40% chance for a grade 10, then another 40% chance for grade 9, 50% for grade 8 and so on. This does mean that the grades are a dependent probability, so here are the real numbers that you should expect to get for every card you sent to be graded:

Grade	Chance %
10	38.4%
9	23%
8	17.3%
7	8.6%
6	4.3%
5	3.8%
4	1.2%
3	0.6%
2	0.3%
1	0.3%

Regrading Cards

Not many people actually know this but you can in fact sent your graded cards back to get regraded! It is pretty risky though as you only have a 30% chance for the card to increase by a single grade. Otherwise, you have a 29% chance of the card to decrease a single grade, with the remaining 41% keeping the grade the exact same. Are you sure you wanna try to make those grade 9's into some grade 10's? I wish you the best of luck attempting!
(Thank you raistlin212 for pointing out my error. I totally misread the logic of code.)

Disclaimer

This info is subject to change by the Developer.
If you see a mistake, let me know. This is from what I've concluded from looking at the code.
I will not be revealing how I looked into the code.

I hope this guide helps you understand what is going on behind the scenes a bit more!

Big shoutout to Keldor for quoting this guide to others whenever they ask about the probabilities!
And to everyone who has given me awards! You are all so very kind and I hope each and every one of you get many Ghost Foils!

[0Golden Stag]

Thanks for sharing the info! Very exciting stuff to read.

Unreal how lucky I got when I opened that ghost foil and I wasnt even aware of how rare it was at the time.

[Frooop]

I'm an Unlucky Bastard. I got a foil ghost card after opening over 26,000 packs and reaching shop level 105

[Macoto]

The only special thing about destiny packs is the ghost cards being 2x more common?
thats crazy for the price

[heitkampd3]

ghost card day 2

[ARJGVS]

whats considered the best pack to run in the card opening machines to gain value & achivements?

[artificial.intellectual]

Thank you for this i love all the information added here, I also hope we get a stats counter :)

[AngelOfDarkness]

What's it called when you get 7 cards of foil full art because when I got one it felt like a mechanic not just luck.

[jimlocke1]

I completed the basic album around day 80, the destiny album around day 150. At this point i only needed 5 more ghost cards to finish that album. After ripping open 6 thousand boxes(64 pks) i only got one more Ghost full art foil. I gave up trying to complete that album. Tbh the only reason i played at all was to complete the 3 albums. Not worth grinding out the last 5 cards. Not enough fun in the game to bother..

[Trickie]

Maybe i have been lucky or just persistent but i have had a seven card pack value of 33,00 all were full art foils and several full packs of ghost cards these average out at about 2-3000 a pack. i have tried several strategies but in all so far I have opened a Ghost foil card and often two or three but these all appear very early in the game never to reappear (yet) in my current I have one wort over 40,000 and i am currently on level 63. no buyers yet but will persevere. Whether Base or Destiny Red pack seem to produce the greater number of high value cards. I buy 20-30 per day. happy hunting.

[ZeroTops]

when i start a new game and will pull a pack my game crash, any advice and its everytime