Predicting the weather?

[Farticus]

Is it possible to predict the weather while playing survival mode?

For instance, I've read that when you hear a crow or crows fly across the sky, it means that in a few minutes, the weather will change and be either good or bad weather.

But can you predict the weather by looking up at the sky? If you start to see clouds moving across the sky, does this mean it will be a blizzard or just strong winds?

If it starts to snow, does that mean that in a few minutes, there's going to be a blizzard?

Is it all random, or does the weather follow a pattern?

[Stellarbone]

Watch the birds. If birds fly over, weather change is shortly behind.

[Stellarbone]

Originally posted by JayXL:

This is anecdotal and unproven. It's been a theory for a long time. I'd love to see some science behind the claim.

From the wiki, crows flying overhead is a sign of an approaching storm. Every time i've seen them fly over in my games, a storm is not far behind.

[cattivision]

I do not know the weather mechanics and suspect it may be multifactoral, especially since the variability is one of the custom settings. The idea of crows indicating weather changes maybe took hold due to confirmation bias, unless the crows indicate an RNG roll point, and there is a chance that the new weather will be exactly the same as current weather, then I do not believe they are linked at all. I often have nice clear days and see crows flying over late evening, but it stays calm and clear overnight.

[Sito]

Raph said the crows overhead have nothing to do with weather. It was in answer to this question in a Milton Mailbag on the Hinterland forums

[Farticus]

Originally posted by Sito:

Raph said the crows overhead have nothing to do with weather. It was in answer to this question in a Milton Mailbag on the Hinterland forums

I see. So the weather is random? It doesn't follow a pattern?

[Sito]

Originally posted by Farticus:

Originally posted by Sito:

Raph said the crows overhead have nothing to do with weather. It was in answer to this question in a Milton Mailbag on the Hinterland forums

I see. So the weather is random? It doesn't follow a pattern?

Well the crows don't indicate anything but by observation over many thousands of hours of play I conclude that it is not truly random in that you do not get a blizzard followed by another blizzard like you would with the toss of a coin and get 2 tails in a row, but rather there is some programmed pattern that makes it possible for one of several weather to follow the weather that just occurred. In other words a programmed algorithm. That the weather is different in each region would point to different algorithms in each region.

I learned to plan my outdoor activities to the probability that i could have all day nice weather in one region, but get hit with a blizzard while out in another region. It becomes about risk assessment and what you pack when you leave your base. In PV I always plan for the worst but i can travel quite far and have a location to hole up in. In BI I know i am going to freeze in a windstorm and better run to where i want to go but i dont worry about blizzards so much. You learn the weather of each region with the time you spend there.

[rhwilson1953]

I prefer using a Weather Rock, when observing a weather rock lying outdoors the following conditions apply;

If the rock is wet, it's raining.
If the rock is swinging, the wind is blowing.
If the rock casts a shadow, the sun is shining.
If the rock does not cast a shadow and is not wet, the sky is cloudy.
If the rock is difficult to see, it is foggy.
If the rock is white, it is snowing.
If the rock is coated with ice, there is a frost.
If the ice is thick, it's a heavy frost.
If the rock is bouncing, there is an earthquake.
If the rock is under water, there is a flood.
If the rock is warm, it is sunny.
If the rock is missing, there was a tornado.
If the rock is wet and swinging violently, there is a hurricane.
If the rock can be felt but not seen, it is night time.
If the rock has white splats on it, watch out for birds.
If there are two rocks, stop drinking, you are drunk.

[RedRyder18]

Originally posted by AfLIcTeD:

Originally posted by rhwilson1953:

I prefer using a Weather Rock, when observing a weather rock lying outdoors the following conditions apply;

If the rock is wet, it's raining.
If the rock is swinging, the wind is blowing.
If the rock casts a shadow, the sun is shining.
If the rock does not cast a shadow and is not wet, the sky is cloudy.
If the rock is difficult to see, it is foggy.
If the rock is white, it is snowing.
If the rock is coated with ice, there is a frost.
If the ice is thick, it's a heavy frost.
If the rock is bouncing, there is an earthquake.
If the rock is under water, there is a flood.
If the rock is warm, it is sunny.
If the rock is missing, there was a tornado.
If the rock is wet and swinging violently, there is a hurricane.
If the rock can be felt but not seen, it is night time.
If the rock has white splats on it, watch out for birds.
If there are two rocks, stop drinking, you are drunk.

Legit thought this was a serious post at first.

It is, I use this technique in real life. It's never failed once.

[RedRyder18]

Originally posted by AfLIcTeD:

Originally posted by RedRyder18:

It is, I use this technique in real life. It's never failed once.

Where can I get one of these weather rocks? I really need one as I never seem to know if there has been a tornado.

Well there's this old pepsi machine in my town and when you put exactly 57 cents into the coin slot it gives you a weather rock, that's how I got mine. Alternatively, if you live in Kansas you have a built in radar for tornadoes, so if you have a friend from Kansas hire him to stand outside your property, don't forget to give him 3 meals of New Brunswick stew and a bottle of pop each day.

[Doppel G Anger]

This is the easiest way to predict when a blizzard will strike:
- spend multiple days looting/living in a region
- start packing all of your items for the journey to a new region or a far-flung corner of the region you are currently in
- the blizzard will either start 5 seconds before you are ready to start your journey, or 5 seconds after you leave your shelter
- alternatively, the blizzard will appear when you go out for a "quick trip" and you leave your bed roll back in your shelter. This usually coincides with a strong head wind that is blowing from the direction of your intended travel.

[iwasa]

The changes of weather seem to be randomized. I have had good weather in the space of breaking up a branch turn into a howling blizzard (more or less). If one is looking for reliability of prediction then I think one would tend to be disappointed. Some times you're right, some times you're wrong.

About the only thing that one can be reasonably sure of is experience with weather in one's game. For myself, I generally expect that if there was a blizzard on a given day I could reasonably expect to not have another blizzard that day (or maybe, to be more limited, for the next twelve hours). That does not mean I can't get rather bad weather, just no blizzard. Of course, YMMV.

[konzacelt]

I can usually predict bad weather with three simple scenarios:
1) arriving at the midpoint between two shelters
2) forgetting to bring along a simple but vital material like a bedroll or matches
3) deciding to chance it and clean an animal at the end of the day away from shelter

80% effective forecasting. :)

[Evendark]

you can play with the weather not against it :). there are some rules about weather change, temperatures, maglense sun and so on. if you play long enough you get a feeling how this works :)

[happybjorn]

As far as I can tell there is a random roll at an interval, something like every 4 in game hours, that determines whether the weather will change. The change doesn't take effect until several hours after the roll (seems like it's 2 hours after)

This pattern should be observable any time taking a long trip (without triggering any saves). If a weather change happens within the first couple hours it should always hit at that point. After that the changes should be mostly random (I say mostly because I can't tell if the roll is weighted, or restricted based on the current, or even recent, weather).

[Gun Tech.]

Yes. If you observe at which times of the day and night weather changes, you can find a pattern. By knowing the regions well, you can make a choice between current weather and the possible change and make a decision to spend a certain amount of time outside, or wait. E.g. PV has higher chances of blizzards, and FM has higher chances of fog.