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A general rule of thumb is to follow land paths and "island hop", as it were, between those patches of ground.
The more exposure you have to weak ice in the game, the better you'll get at guessing where it will appear, as well as remembering where you went for a swim previously!
Happy to be corrected by someone else who has worked out the system and can 'read' the ice.
In DP, CrH, and CH, if you can see the water lapping at the ice, you are too close., lol!
Also useful for this purpose: tinder plugs after you don't need them for fires, cat tail heads and used-up whetstones, firestrikers and sewing kits (the latter being useful because they are visible more easily against the snow as a marker than stones, which also occur 'naturally').
If it's a short distance...just leg it! :D