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I know I have heard that much earlier versions of the game had decay start only after you entered a new Map, but I had been under the impression that had been changed to start decay globally, at the start of a new Snadbox. But it is always odd to be 50+ days in, and find food that all are below 30% condition, except that one 90-100% tomato soup. Lol! Not sure why, but it is always tomato soup for me tat has this odd decay thing going.
I had raw bear meat outside in nature's freezer drop to 0% in about 30 days. How the heck did that fish survive?
Makes me wonder if the decay rate is different for undiscovered items, discovered items (not put into inventory) and discovered items (put into inventory).
Untouched (undiscovered)- decays more slowly after intinial spawn condition? Because it hasn;t bee touched or disturbed?
Discovered but not put into the backpack- decays slightly faster because it has been disturbed/exposed to new environmental conditions?
Discovered and inventoried- decays at a much higher rate, after beng disturbed, and placed into backpack (radiated body heat affecting decay rate)?
If this is the case, and there are mutliple alogorithms in place for decay rates, varying due to above listed effects, that's downright complicated to track via spreadsheet. Especially if the rate changes if storage location and handling has changed. (I touched it, thereby introducing bacterial actions on it, altering decay rates?). We know it does with meat and fish stored indoos or outdoors.
Lol! Now, I am more confused by it than ever. I knew I have always disliked Excel for a reason. I'll just keep going, and not worrying too much about the maths. Maths always make games less enjoyable for me. I have to deal with higher math to make a living IRL. I game to get away from IRL for a bit. I love that the game makes me think, seriously think, before and during actions. But having to pause to do higher math calculations? Nooooooo! :p
(The whole discussion on probabilities, starting with the OP's question of 7 fails @ 70% success chance... my head exploded. Several times, lol!)
Yeeaaahhh I'll let someone else do the math on that.
For every "rule" we seem to identify, there is inevitably some exception that throws a wrench in the logic. Meh.
There was a good discussion of this topic here: http://steamcommunity.com/app/305620/discussions/0/343787283761132471/
Yeah, I do use that exploit of leaving predator meat out until ruined, and I have Lvl 5 cooking, so I can cook it to 50% and eat it safely. I usually do something else stupid and die shortly afterwards. Like forgetting that bear meat left out for 30 days should also indicate a new bear has spawned in the area, and is waiting around the corner for me to come storlling aong. xD
It's like trying to figure out quantum mechanics with an abacus. I just shrug and go with the general "Meat outdoors, all else in drawers," and call it a day. If someone really wants to gather the data and crunch out the calculus by all means knock yourself out. But until that happens, or a developer decides to spill the beans, I think we'll have to go with heuristics on this one.