Early Research

[Manxome]

OK, this is going to be long.

It is my impression that investing in the research fields that unlock immediately (Observations and History) is generally worse than saving your research points until after your second expedition when the remaining fields unlock. (In addition to my personal experience, I've seen Liort argue this a couple of times.) Even when I finish Celtic Code with enough research to complete an entire field immediately and claim the completion bonus right off the bat, I think it is probably a mistake to do so.

Basically, the abilities in advanced fields are simply more powerful than those in starting fields. Some obvious examples:

- Writing History (in History) gives 1 campaign for a chosen attitude. Encounter Studies (in Anthropology) gives 1 encounter for a chosen attitude. Initially, 1 encounter is basically 1 campaign + 1 collect, and if you've unlocked Anthropology it's also worth 1 study as well, so this is basically 2-3 times as good. It has the same number of prerequisites.

- Scientist Senses (in Observations) gives one study from a chosen challenge type. Unlocking Nature Sciences gives two study from the challenge type you probably would've chosen anyway if you're focusing on research.

- Improved Storage (in Observations) gives 2 supply capacity. Improved Cargo (in Engineering) has the same number of prerequisites and gives 3 supply capacity.

- Completing Observations gives +33% renown from one resource. Completing Psychology, Engineering, or Nature Sciences gives +50% renown from one resource.

Even in cases where the comparisons are less direct, the abilites in advanced fields usually seem stronger overall.

Probably this was done with the expectation that the advanced papers will be more expensive when you get to them; however, since the early fields are not actually prerequisites for the later fields, and since the cost of research papers is based on how many you already have rather than which papers you are publishing now, a player can make the advanced fields cheap by skipping the early fields, thereby getting better payouts per point of research spent.

I'm not sure whether this strategy is intentional or not, but I don't think it's a very good outcome for the game. For one thing, it means that players usually won't make much use of the starting fields, which reduces the potential for gameplay variety. But for another thing, sitting on your research is fairly counter-intuitive (the tutorial even tells you to spend it), so new players are very unlikely to do it; for that reason, it is a failure of clarity in the design.

I think it would be better if the baseline strategy was to publish a few papers right away, and then evaluate after your second expedition whether it's better to try to complete those fields or jump straight into the advanced fields, leaving the opening ones partially-complete. I think that strategy ought to at least be a defensible option for an experienced player.

If you want to accomplish that, I think some significant alterations are in order.

My general approach would be:

1. Individual papers in the starting fields should NOT be weaker than individual papers in the advanced fields. In fact, they should probably be slightly stronger, but with weaker completion bonuses, to encourage dabbling without locking you into a specific strategy.

2. Starting fields should focus on abilities that are good to get in the early game: effects that scale over time or give you resources you can reinvest, rather than one-shot or renown-based effects.

3. Avoid long prerequisite chains in starting fields; you want your early choices to be interesting and rewarding even if you abandon the field after that. Focus on "breadth" rather than "depth".



How much payout should an early research paper get you? Well, the Observation tree is billed as being for players who want to advance quickly through scientific fields, so I'd say that if I get a paper from that tree before my second expedition and all it does is give me extra research, it ought to generate at least enough research to let me publish 1 extra paper before my final expedition. If it generates less than that, then it's actually slowing down my progress in the advanced fields (not speeding it up), and the only real benefit it's giving me is the extra renown I get from the research it generates. Even if it generates more than that, that doesn't automatically mean it was worth getting, because it still delayed that advanced research paper from my third expedition to my fourth or fifth, which had an opportunity cost, so even though it "pays for itself" it's still not an auto-buy.

I don't think it's outlandish to expect a player to complete at least 12 research papers (2 full fields) by the end of the game. At that point, the marginal cost of your next research paper is 210 research. So a paper would need to average at least 70 research per expedition during the middle 3 expeditions to meet that condition if we keep publishing costs as they are now. I don't think averaging 100 research per expedition would be outlandish if you truly want players to use the Observation tree for that.

Can existing research papers generate that much? Well, I think some of the papers in advanced fields plausibly might:

Effective Equipment (+1-3 research from collect; in Engineering field)

Even if you're focusing on research or status, I think you could plausibly get 25 collect from a 3-star expedition, for ~50 research from this ability. But if you actually focus on collect tokens, I think you could double that without excessive effort, hitting our 100 research target.

Lucrative Epiphany (+6-10 research and +20-25 gold from discovery; in Nature Sciences field)
Unique Specimen (1 discovery per treasure; in Nature Sciences field)

These are obviously designed to be used together. A thorough player can plausibly average 4 treasures per expedition, giving 4 discovery tokens worth 26-40 research and 45-55 gold each, or about 112 research and 200 gold per expedition. Lucrative Epiphany also applies to any discoveries you would have gotten anyway; let's say 1 per expedition, giving another 8 research and 22 gold.

It takes 2 papers to do that, but if you split the credit 50/50 between them, each one of them is giving about 60 research + 111 gold per expedition (more if you get treasures to improve discoveries). Assuming gold and status are worth 40% as much as research (based on the initial payout ratios of collect, campaign, and study tokens), that's a combined value equivalent to a little over 100 research per expedition per paper.

Nature Sciences (initial unlock) (2 study tokens per Nature challenge)

A Nature-heavy expedition might have 5 Nature challenge nodes in it, for 10 study tokens per expedition. With no students, that's 50 research; if you go heavy into students and manage to pick up 10 of them, though, it could increase to 100 research. More likely you get a moderate number of students and end up around 75 research. Not great, but also not bad for a throwaway ability that you only bought to unlock the field.

(Side note: why are students so much weaker than other helpers? Your first merchant/lobbyist gives a 16% bonus to the value of a collect/campaign token, but your first student gives only a 10% bonus to your study tokens, which is a pretty significant difference. (I am assuming that the average payout is halfway between the min and max.))


Anthropology (initial unlock (+4-6 research from encounter tokens)

If you're aiming for encounters, I think you could probably manage 4-5 per expedition, not counting the boss. At 2 encounter tokens each, that's about 55 research. However, if you get the other Anthropology techs that give encounter tokens, you'll double that to 110. Plus, you might be getting extra encounter tokens from insight (if you use a fighter, or the Cultural Awareness paper), which can only increase that.


Those are all research papers that you might consider getting just as stepping stones to other papers and/or the field completion bonus, but they could all hit our approximate target numbers if you optimize them. What about the current Observations papers?

Research Explorers (+1 study when a Naturalist/Engineer/Archaeologist succeeds on the wheel)

Based on my notes, it looks like I probably average somewhere around 8 wheel spins per expedition. If you fail one of those spins, and have the required perks on only 2 out of 3 of your crew members, that might come out to 5 study tokens per expedition--only half of what you're getting from the Nature Sciences unlock, which is arguably the least powerful of the options I reviewed above.

Scientist Senses (+1 study from a challenge type of your choice)

If you choose Nature, this is exactly one half of the Nature Sciences unlock. And if you're focusing on research, you probably want to choose Nature. Even if you choose something else, that changes which expeditions you want to go on, but won't increase the maximum benefit you could get from this.

Laboratory (+2 study from each insight spent in Berlin)

If we assume you were going to spend 100% of your insight in Berlin anyway, and that you get about 15-20 insight over the course of the game, that's 30-40 study tokens; amortized over 3 expeditions that's about 10-13 per expedition, slightly edging out Nature Sciences! But that's a pretty generous assumption; spending 100% of your insight in Berlin is otherwise somewhatunlikely. (Also, Nature Sciences is still useful for renown during your fifth expedition, and this isn't.)

Still, this might possibly be OK if not for the fact that spending insight early on is currently usually bad (which is an issue for another thread).


It seems to me like the Observations papers are systematically underperforming (consistent with my earlier remark that the advanced papers are simply better). Research Explorers and Scientist Senses could probably both have their effect doubled without being in any serious danger of becoming overpowered (except perhaps when Anna's your captain...)



Some additional remarks on other early papers:


Science Assistants (2 insight and 1 student)

This paper is pretty good...to get with your leftover research immediately before your fourth expedition, when you can spend the insight instantly for a big payout. It's pretty bad to get at the start of the game, when 1 insight is only worth a couple basic tokens.

The student gives more total research if you get it early, but it also increases the cost of all future students you recruit, so it has a hidden status cost that's also higher the earlier you get it. (Philosophically, I also don't especially like the idea of buying helpers with research; I can already buy them with status.)


History unlock (-40% status cost to upgrade entourage halls)

This is worth more the earlier you get it (when you haven't already paid for any upgrades), so some credit for that. But you could plausibly avoid upgrading your entourage hall at all before your second expedition, even for a status strategy, so I don't think this qualifies as something you want immediately.

It's also fairly weak. In an ideal case, this could save you a maximum of 236 status. If we apply our previous heuristics (multiply by 40% to make it comparable to research and then amortize over 3 expeditions), that's an equivalent value of around 32 research per expedition. But it's actually worse than that, because saving 236 status is worse than generating 236 status (you don't earn renown on resources you save). Plus, a status-focused strategy doesn't need it (they'll have spare status anyway by the time they unlock Rio de Janeiro) and a non-status-focused strategy probably isn't going to upgrade all 3 halls to max level, so realistically you will never get that ideal value.



Antiquity Insight (1 insight, 1 insight per expedition)
Exploration Records (1 supply capacity, +1 supply capacity per expedition)

These are probably good ideas for starter papers because they're clearly better the earlier you get them.

However, Exploration Records has three prerequisites--you need practically the entire field to get it! That makes no sense for a tech that's supposed to tempt you to grab it right away. Nor is it strong enough to warrant it: If you get it immediately, it gives you 1+2+3+4 = 10 supplies over the course of the game; if you wait, Improved Cargo has fewer prerequisites and will still give you 9 supplies, despite the fact that you didn't have it during your second expedition.





With all of the foregoing in mind, here's a straw-man total redesign of the Observations and History research fields:



OBSERVATIONS
Unlock: If you have NO relevant perks when spinning the adventure wheel, improve your odds as if you had 1 level in 1 relevant perk.
This is best in the early game, when you have few perks, and each level adds a lot. It's especially good for newbies who don't know which perks to get.

Research Explorers: +2 Study when a Naturalist, Engineer, or Archaeologist succeeds on the adventure wheel
Doubled effect, but less synergistic than before with the field unlock.

Detailed Notes: (requires Research Explorers) One crew gains 1 Naturalist, Engineer, or Archaeologist perk of your choice
This is a tempting last-minute grab because it's an automatic 50 renown on the Key of Mind, so putting it further down discourages cherry-picking.

Thirst for Knowledge: +0-2 research from collect, campaign, and study tokens
Because the bonus is diffuse, it works for all strategies, and won't hit crazy levels when you optimize for a specific type of token.

Improved Storage: Keeps current effect (+2 supply capacity), but no prerequisites.
Getting this before expedition #2 is fewer supplies over the game than getting Improved Cargo before expedition #3; we could at least make it easier to get.

Tinker: (requires Improved Storage) +1-5 gold and 1-5 status from Study tokens
This bonus is more optimizable, so it's hidden behind a prereq to make it harder to grab while focusing on something else. Also, making Improved Storage a prerequisite for something makes it a bit stronger.


Completion Bonus: All future research papers cost 15% less research than normal




HISTORY
Unlock: Steals the current effect of Antiquity Insight (1 insight, +1 insight after each expedition)

Humanity's Cradle: Unlocks the Africa insight jobs on the world map.
Also considered unlocking a special job that pays 1 collect + 1 campaign + 1 study, but that doesn't play nice with all the individual character abilities that boost the payouts of specific jobs.

Lecture Expert: (requires Humanity's Cradle) +2 Collect when doing any insight job with a Scout; +2 Campaign when doing any insight job with a Speaker; +2 Study when doing any insight job with a Scientist; +1 Encounter when doing any insight job with a fighter
This is the same magnitude of bonus that the current Lecture Expert gives on the Africa jobs, but I think it's a little more interesting, and it won't make you feel bad if you switch to Asia jobs later. Hiding it behind the job-unlocking-paper somewhat reduces the temptation to save your insight and then pick this up at the last minute.

Exploration Records: (requires Humanity's Cradle) Keeps current effect (+1 supply capacity, gain +1 supply capacity after each expedition)
Now reasonably accessible. I anticipate some reluctance to using Humanity's Cradle as a prerequisite, because it does nothing if you've already unlocked Africa through regular means, but if it's that late in the game you probably don't want Exploration Records anyway.

Hunger for Fame: +1-3 status from collect, campaign, study, and encounter tokens

Ghosts of the Past: +1 Encounter token whenever you enter a challenge node of a chosen type (for the first time)


Completion Bonus: 5 insight



Thoughts?

[xploring]

Sorry too long didn't read most of it. But I agree with you how the first two research tree are too weak and unattractive. I understand why they made them weaker because unlocking after the starter expedition gave them more time to accumulate benefits. But even with that in mind, they are not as good as the advanced tree like you said. Part of the problem is that I usually worries about how much research I will get for the whole campaign and may be in a position not being able to finish the advanced trees like I wanted. It also delays unlocking techs from advanced fields and those are usually a lot better than the first two.

Unlocking Observation forces you to choose a perk right at the beginning of a campaign when usually you don't know what perk you will need by the end (because we don't know what perks we can get from specialist entourage). That really sucks. Even for runs focusing on reaserch, I am still hesitant on unlocking Observation because of that.

And I wish they can add a counter on how many techs you can unlock from your existing research count. It's a pain looking it up on the forum then getting a calculator to work it out.

[Manxome]

Yeah, I guess no one made it through the wall of text.

If you want to skip to the end, there's a straw-man proposal for how to restructure the Observations and History fields.

[xploring]

Originally posted by Manxome:

With all of the foregoing in mind, here's a straw-man total redesign of the Observations and History research fields:



OBSERVATIONS
Unlock: If you have NO relevant perks when spinning the adventure wheel, improve your odds as if you had 1 level in 1 relevant perk.
This is best in the early game, when you have few perks, and each level adds a lot. It's especially good for newbies who don't know which perks to get.

The Observation unlock bonus is really good and inventive suggestion. It's a bit too good in a way and doesn't fit with the science theme of the Observation tree. Maybe only for Naturalist, Engineer or Archaeologist? Then that's too weak as you would have probably at least two of those to unlock Observation. Don't know.

Research Explorers: +2 Study when a Naturalist, Engineer, or Archaeologist succeeds on the adventure wheel
Doubled effect, but less synergistic than before with the field unlock.

Good one, but I have no problem with how it is now.

Detailed Notes: (requires Research Explorers) One crew gains 1 Naturalist, Engineer, or Archaeologist perk of your choice
This is a tempting last-minute grab because it's an automatic 50 renown on the Key of Mind, so putting it further down discourages cherry-picking.

I like how it's further down but you still need to choose right after starter to get the whole tree/field bonus. I would prefer this to be one of the tech in Nature Science. I don't know what to swap in with though.

Thirst for Knowledge: +0-2 research from collect, campaign, and study tokens
Because the bonus is diffuse, it works for all strategies, and won't hit crazy levels when you optimize for a specific type of token.

A bit too general for me, I would prefer it to be for study only to fit it in the Science-related theme of Observation. If it applies to all three tokens, it feels too strong and becomes a must-have from my pov. 0-2 seems a lot compared with related treasures and helper, but not too much for my intermediate skill level. I don't know much about balancing.

Improved Storage: Keeps current effect (+2 supply capacity), but no prerequisites.
Getting this before expedition #2 is fewer supplies over the game than getting Improved Cargo before expedition #3; we could at least make it easier to get.

It's nice to have, good for beginners but veterans don't really care. Ok either way for me. I like supplies so it will be tempting for me.

Tinker: (requires Improved Storage) +1-5 gold and 1-5 status from Study tokens
This bonus is more optimizable, so it's hidden behind a prereq to make it harder to grab while focusing on something else. Also, making Improved Storage a prerequisite for something makes it a bit stronger.

Completion Bonus: All future research papers cost 15% less research than normal

These are really good for Science game so this field is pretty much a must-have with these two bonus when going for Science. I am not sure if I prefer it this way. For me, it would be better if there are reasons to get this field or not, not overwhelmingly one way or the other.

HISTORY
Unlock: Steals the current effect of Antiquity Insight (1 insight, +1 insight after each expedition)

Humanity's Cradle: Unlocks the Africa insight jobs on the world map.
Also considered unlocking a special job that pays 1 collect + 1 campaign + 1 study, but that doesn't play nice with all the individual character abilities that boost the payouts of specific jobs.

Lecture Expert: (requires Humanity's Cradle) +2 Collect when doing any insight job with a Scout; +2 Campaign when doing any insight job with a Speaker; +2 Study when doing any insight job with a Scientist; +1 Encounter when doing any insight job with a fighter
This is the same magnitude of bonus that the current Lecture Expert gives on the Africa jobs, but I think it's a little more interesting, and it won't make you feel bad if you switch to Asia jobs later. Hiding it behind the job-unlocking-paper somewhat reduces the temptation to save your insight and then pick this up at the last minute.

Exploration Records: (requires Humanity's Cradle) Keeps current effect (+1 supply capacity, gain +1 supply capacity after each expedition)
Now reasonably accessible. I anticipate some reluctance to using Humanity's Cradle as a prerequisite, because it does nothing if you've already unlocked Africa through regular means, but if it's that late in the game you probably don't want Exploration Records anyway.

Hunger for Fame: +1-3 status from collect, campaign, study, and encounter tokens

Ghosts of the Past: +1 Encounter token whenever you enter a challenge node of a chosen type (for the first time)


Completion Bonus: 5 insight



Thoughts?

I like History field unlock bonus and the African jobs unlock, but the Lecture Expert is too strong for me. Because you can buff standard tokens with helpers but you can't with the big tokens, it eclipses Asian jobs and make them rather unattractive. Combined with Cultural Awareness and Tales from the Wild and African jobs become a bit too strong... Can make things interesting in the decision to work for which jobs...

Hunger for fame, too good for me. Maybe only from campaign. 5 insights is a lot, even if you spend it immediately. 2 maybe. Actually a once-off bonus is not good as the entire tree unlock bonus because it won't continue to pay off over the duration of the run so there's no incentive to get it early. A small renown boost for status would fit in with the theme how History is currently... Balancing is hard, I don't have more concrete suggestion.