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Interesting. So, does this mean that things like gear, weapons, bionics and skills only affect raid strenght by increasing your wealth, and pawn points are unaffected (aside from pawn point amount being scaled depending on your wealth)?
Is there any difference, say between having bionics in storage, or having them installed in pawns?
I can’t speak on your last question but something I’ve noted in my around 5k hours of playtime is how once you get certain weapons or equipment, mechanoid raids start showing up. Usually shield belts or assault rifles start triggering them properly for me. I’ve also seen it with 5 colonists wearing plate armor but no proper firearms. From how I understand the game, no actual like testing, bionics laying on the ground shouldn’t affect it if bionics are indeed taken into consideration
Correct. Bionics have their own mechanic, since technically they disappear as an item once installed. One of the direct effects of a bionic is increasing the value of the pawn by an amount similar to what the bionic's market value is. If you click on a pawn and open their 'i' info you can click on wealth and see a breakdown of what is affecting their "pawn value." This number will typically be trivial unless you start installing bionics, at which point you will see additional information in that area about the bionics and value they are adding.
Mechanoids have 2 requirements, they have a minimum raid day of 45, giving you 3 quadrums to prepare for them, and then they have a minimum raid points of 300 so if you are very low wealth they can't raid. At 301 raid points they are extremely rare, they become about as common as other factions at 700 points, and at 4000 points they cap out at 2.8 commonality making them more common than other factions.
Mechanoids do not look at any other mechanics, they are not checking your gear or research or anything like that. If you play tribal and stay tribal, you will start getting mech raids at about the same time and frequency depending on wealth generation speed. It's definitely easy to come up with a pattern here based on that timer, as you tend to hit similar places in progression at around the time the day/wealth limit is exceeded and mechs start showing up.
Adaption only builds up to a 1.47 multiplier at max if you never have anyone downed for any reason for basically multiple years, and this is only relevant on lower difficulties. Adaption is not meant as a mechanic to make the game more difficult, it's not there to throw harder raids at you, it's a mechanic that helps the player by softening raids in response to how poorly you do with them before gradually returning to more normal values. As such, adaption is basically disabled on higher difficulties, doing effectively nothing on losing is fun so you can't use that crutch to make raids easier. The link above explains it more detail if you scroll down.
The biggest change I was happy about was when they put those timers or heatwaves a few years back. It felt like every colony I played used to have a heatwave or cold snap in the first year.