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I just had another failure on Decembary 4th, this one was a 'catastrophic' failure. When it rains it pours.
The good news is that catastrophic failure I mentioned in the follow up was just a circadian assistant, so I can at least just craft another one of those.
For example. I started a colony of anomaly researchers. 2 scientists (this was before you got 3 colonists, used to be 2) and a ghoul. 1.1 yearly disease frequency, and yet, 4 diseases BACK TO BACK, all 4 affecting one of the colonist, with the other one getting lucky against one of them.
So the log was like
Violet got flu
Violet, Scarlet got malaria
Violet, Scarlet got plague
*Violet gets cured of flu*
Violet, Scarlet got flu
1.1 yearly diseases, yeah right.
Sounds like someone had the Sickly trait. Even if you remove it via Prepare Carefully and possibly even Character Editor, that hidden 'randomly catches a disease' thing can stick around.
In my current game, the blind healer joined with that trait. She also had the Weak immunity gene. It was super early game of a pre-tribal start, so I kept her because Unnatural healing is kind of ridiculously OP, but she got sick a lot.
I have since given her 2 immunoenhancers and a xenogerm that includes super immunity and...no joke, she almost never gets sick at all anymore. Almost like the game wants to mock me.
Probabilities being what they are, I felt that something most definitely had to be wrong. while the incredibly low probability of that many botched jobs in such a short time does exist, it's so infinitesimally small that I just couldn't accept it was what was happening.
So I paid closer attention as surgeries were being performed and I noticed the doctors were using herbal medicine. I had installed a mod (Choose your Medicine) a few days back which downscales medicine used for surgery, allegedly only if the downscale still keeps the surgery chance at 100%.
Given that the botches started happening shortly after installing that mod....I decided it was suspect and uninstalled it. Since then I haven't had another botched surgery. I won't say the mod itself doesn't work properly, but at the very least it does not work properly with the specific other mods that I am using.
I really should have thought of the fact that I had recently switched to a different 'medicine mod' much sooner... A new fork of Smart Medicine and Pharmacist was released yesterday so I am using those now instead. The only reason I had started using Choose your Medicine in the first place is because the (old) fork of the two that i had been using didn't quite work properly together.
Assuming everything is 100% and everything is vanilla the chances of hitting the 2% failed chance is
0.02 / x 0.02 = 0.0004
0.0004 x 0.02 = 0.000008
Thats 0.000008% chance.
Its very unlikely to happen, Genshin impact 5 star gatcha rolls have a higher chance. I would look back and ensure you aren't over-looking something and ensure that your doctors aren't suffering from sight loss, loss of manipulation, or consciousness etc.
That tends to happen most often for me when they puff on the smokeweed prior to surgery.
From my experience, the biggest contributing factor to surgery failures are the doctor themselves. Like old age developing cataracts or an arm getting blown off last raid that you didn't repair with bionics because you were too busy microing against a 200 man raid.
Or the wrong doctor decided to do the surgery because you ticked people that were capable of bandaging injured people, but forgot to set them back to not permanent doctor duty.
EDIT: Random is never random on a computer system as it always takes "influence" from the machine and the coding it is runing on (but that would be too technical, even for me, I just know it very lightly).
Like a coin toss is never going to be 50/50 (it's more likely to be 51/49 or 52/48) or many, many other examples. Both sides of the coin are not the same weight, even if by fractions. Dice are so very slightly more heavy on this or that face, and so on. Computer system too can be slightly biased. There are always going to be unweighted factors to the random generation.
Another factor is human perception.
Spotify: The "random" way spotify shuffles a playlist is not random at all. It had to be coded with many exceptions and rules to how random it is because of our perception. Let's say that randomly we get 3 Metallica songs in a row. It's possible mathematically, it's just our brains have a hard time accepting it and while we may not notice if no Metallica songs play for almost the entire play time of the list, we do notice if we get 3 in a row. So spotify's random system has built in rules to avoid that things like this happens often.