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5% terrible = +20% certainty
15% ineffective = +12% certainty
60% effective = -30% certainty +3 participant mood
20% masterful = -100% certainty +6 participant mood
This is mostly important for pawns with traits that reduce certainty fall as IIRC the ritual ignores those multipliers. So a masterful ritual will always instantly convert a pawn to your ideology.
Most people vastly underestimate the importance of social skill on their moral guide and is the main reason for confusion surrounding conversion. A high skill moral guide can convert most pawns in 2-3 attempts of the convert ability, and is vital to getting good odds on the conversion ritual for the tougher nuts to crack. The idea of arresting a pawn to recruit them in prisoner is ludicrous outside of niche situations, like pawns with x25% certainty fall (iron will, or two 50% traits) where the convert ability does very little but normal conversion is still possible. The options are to burn rituals on them and hope for that 20% outcome, or arrest them and very slowly chip away at their certainty, or arrest them and make them miserable enough so they break and have a crisis of belief mental break. Meanwhile a pawn with the kind trait should instantly flip to your ideology with a single use of the convert ability on a decent moral guide. These extra steps and considerations for specific traits add a lot of depth and interesting choices to the mechanic.
I will say I didn't really agree with the nerf to force the ritual to trigger the conversion ability cooldown. It worked better when you could use them both at the same time. But of course nerfs rarely feel good.
But only about 20% chance of completely converting the subject.
I usually wait until the person is under 30% certain, then there's a 60%-ish chance of converting them either way and less than 20% chance of strengthening their belief in their current ideoligion, adding a day or two to your regular conversion attempts.
And unlike the other rituals, even if the conversion ritual is bad, you don't get a mood hit for it. This makes it probably the strongest ritual in my opinion.
Of course, there's way better ways than rituals to give mood boosts, but I feel that's a whole 'nother discussion.
So you're saying oh you need high social JUST HOW HIGH SOCIAL DO YOU NEED??? I read this yesterday, oh well maybe it's just because my actual leader, not my moral guide or whatever aka the person doing the ritual, is like only 8 social BUT THE PERSON RUNNING THE CONVERSION, MY 'MORAL GUIDE', IS AT 16/20 SOCIAL SKILL, SO THAT SURE ISN'T THE PROBLEM.
I don't why it lacks power so significantly anyway, like what, is it just super weak because they wouldn't want me, oh no, to convert a single pawn too swiftly in my own colony??? THE BALANCE HAS BEEN SHATTERED ALL SENSE OF PROGRESSION HAS BEEN DISSOLVED! OH MY GOOOOOD SOMEONE SAVE US ALL
I guess this is why the game allows mods...
Funeral ritual gives mood buff or debuff and puts a pawn to eternal rest.
Social festival ritual gives mood buff or debuff and has a chance of giving you a new colonist, faction rep etc.
Dance party ritual/Drum party ritual gives mood buff or debuff and has a chance of giving global work speed
Skylantern festival ritual gives a mood buff or debuff and has a chance to attract visitors
Feast ritual (christmas tree, symbol burning, smokeleaf circle or cannibal feast) gives a mood buff or debuff
Scarification ritual gives a mood buff or debuff and scarifies the target
Blinding ritual gives a mood buff or debuff and blinds the target, with a chance of giving a psylink upgrade
Animal sacrifice ritual gives a mood buff or debuff and has a chance to give inspiration to one colonist
Execution ritual gives a mood buff or debuff and has a chance to fully suppress all participating slaves
Do you see the common thread here? A guaranteed mood effect and sometimes a chance of something else. The only "ritual" that doesn't give any mood change for all participants is child birth (from Biotech), which only affects the mother's mood. Even the Royalty "rituals" have a guaranteed mood change and a chance of a bonus.
I mean heck even then, they can go wrong and then give you a mood DEBUFF so it's like it's not even worth doing them in the first place because they could make a bad situation worse, and if you're not in need of mood anyway then that side of the equation is pointless! So in my view it's just a waste of time.
You even sacrifice productivity and time and throw off daily schedules and so on just DOING the event in the first place so if you get nothing out of it... why bother?
And this doesn't solve the problem of when you do a conversion ritual and it fails like 15-20% of the time even when almost everything is as perfect as it can even reasonably be!