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The first is the guns base accuracy, which is seen in the detailed stats. For pistols, its very high for up close, less further out.
Second, shooter. How much skill they have, and sight / manipulation. A person can have 20 shooting, but be blind / one hand, and will be worse than a 5 with a healthy body, obviously.
After that is other elements. Lighting of the target, cover (if its a wall, halfwall, tree, or something else) weather, and other issues. Cover is basically what are the pawns next to that they can put between them and the bullet. Either a wall, a rock, tree, sandbag, ect, all work as cover to an extent, but full on walls with sandbags on the edges are best. These provide a large debuff to the chance of the shooter to hit. Lighting is also big. Its harder to hit a dimly lit target, so night fights are less productive, and having a dark pillbox is safer. You can also light up enemy areas to get better shots. Rain providess another passive debuff to hit chance.
Past that, theres also chance for shots to hit what is on the way. Say, if you fire at a dude who is behind an animal, theres a chance you hit the animal with the bullet. This applies to rocks, trees, people, walls, sandbags, pretty much anything.
So yes cover is kinda deep. Fleaing from gunfire through the jungle is easier to survive than say in the desert, simply because all the trees provide cover which the bullets might hit.
For defensive tactics, try to remove as much cover as you can for enemy flanks prior (clearcut trees around entrance and 40 squares out) and provide cover for yourself to fire from with constructed walls and sandbags. Keep in mind, cover gives the best advantage when someone is actually still, and hunkered behind it. Moving along a sandbag wall makes you more likely to get hit than sitting still, so time movements between volies.
For offensive, try to flank an enemy from an area they don't have cover, and use any cover you can. Use terain, rock walls, regular rocks, trees, ect. Any cover is better than running under fire, even if its semi close. If needed, run between enemy attack from cover to cover to retreat.
This means you can have 2 lines of pawns firing in one direction for example, the pawns at the back won't hit the guys right in front of them. This *should* still be the case if you space them out by one tile but any more and they will start hitting each other.
According to this logic you can place sandbags around the turrets and put embrasures around the sandbangs or vice versa for maximum protection.
I'm not sure if covers apply only to tiles adjacent to the sandbags or in a 2 tiles radius also.
Actually I don't have a clue but hey ^^ any feedback welcome!
I think the most gamey I seen talked about was using doors I thin they got more hp some one used doors and walls, he toggled the doors left open to make his own firing holes in his wall and did them 2 thick so much much hard to shoot his men, and they absorb a lot of explosive damage.
Do you mean that I could put a single tile wall then 2 titles of sandbags on opposite sides and still get the cover bonus? Like s-w-s? Does this affect the colonists if they are standing only in front of the sandbag? I don't know if you'll be able to answer that but I'm curious. I've only been building straight up sandbags.