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I don't know the exact calculations, but this wiki page might help a bit, as it lists all factors that affect accuracy (doesn't include cover and weather effects):
https://rimworldwiki.com/wiki/Shooting_Accuracy
As to the exact calculations, I don't know that. The above should get you started though.
For calculations, you should be able to click the attack button (must be drafted) and simply hold it over the target creature and it should show up all the modifiers that are involved in your chance to actually hit the damn creature.
The sniper rifle should not miss much more than other guns on mid range though, but it might feel like that because it's so darn slow. If you got guns that can shoot on that range, there is also not much reason for a sniper rifle. It's really good to do heavy burst on a very long range, but not so much for other things.
A sniper rifle with a 86% chance of hitting at 25-40 tiles away lowers down to 47% and any further aspect of cover or target size added difficulty will quickly lower that down to somewhere below 25% for a chance to hit.
So I now have to figure out why the enemy can hit my guys so much even when they have cover and I'm at a pretty big distance away.
Thanks for the help.
Yeah I am more inclined to do distance fighting. I'm more familiar with those tactics. Having long range with short range cover for when people get close. But I've been finding that my guys miss most of their shots and not get missed by the enemy nearly as much. But you say it shouldn't miss but when I end up with scenarios that are missing 17 shots in a row, well you start to wonder why lol. I've been doing more testing and I can can generally miss more than 10 shots in a row pretty commonly.
But I agree with your statement of it is so much more noticeable with the sniper rifle and it's slow reload lol.
Colonists are usually spaced at least 2 tiles from each other minimum. Do they need to much more? I find when the enemy is close together they aren't getting hit by my missed bullets. But that is probably because I'm not using spray and pray weapons I'm guessing.
If you have some pawn with 2 archo tech eyes, shooting 20, luciferium, shooting specialist and a excellent+ quality sniper rifle, they can wreck havoc reliably even on max range.
For being hit by the enemy more than you hit them:
Depends on the case really. What kind of cover are you using, at what angle are you touching that cover, what is the other persons shooting skill etc. You might also hit enemies with armour which can just deflect the bullet. Standing on an open field and having 5 enemies trying to hit you with shoddy revolvers on max range can turn that feeling around quickly.
If I could get 2 archo tech eyes hahaha. But yeah shooting 15 and normal sniper rifles I guess means max of 22% hit which is kinda disappointing consider the point of a sniper rifle. They aren't nearly that hard to use. I've tried using bolt actions but the result isn't that much different other than more shots down range. It seems the game is built for spray and pray gameplay mostly as the successful method.
I was hoping to be able to try getting the drop when raiding places from a distance but I find that is basically impossible with hit percentages like that. Usually if I'm real lucky I can drop 2 our of 10 at a distance and then they are basically on top of you. And that's with 6 snipers. At best 2 hit their target and then it's just a matter of hoping damage wise you get lucky with the damage and what was hit. And that's with the combat command adding whatever it adds to it.
Usually hiding behind a wall corner, behind a tree or a stone chuck on the opposite side to them (Not sure if that's what you mean by the angle). Same as them. Sometimes they have armor, some not. And most of them have a shooting skill less than 10. Most of their weapon quality seems to be normal when I reload and wait for better RNG results.
Sniper rifles are really down the line which even the research indicates. If you want to use them early game, you can sometimes get lucky with one really good colonists which can poke the enemy from a distance before they attack, but just giving them to all your colonists will usually not work until you can get bionics and others boosts like gunlink or specialist. If you have a bunch of low skilled colonists without a passion, you have less choice in where and how to fight. Sniper rifle is a specialist gun here, not a bulk weapon (unless you have the boosts).
Yeah I don't tend to get much luck with getting to the bionics currently (previous games I have). But fighting 20 combatants with unreliable shooting capability shortly after the start isn't much good either haha. But yeah starting out spamming revolvers you are better off just meleeing everyone. That has been the most successful tactic I've used so far. It stops all range combat quickly. But it's kind boring and not really tactical lol.
Fair enough about the specialist gun. But I get a similar result with the bolt action so we'd then have to say that's a specialist gun too I guess. Oh I have a gun link it hasn't improved things overly much. But yeah I don't have a specialist skill character yet. And the bionics haven't been available much yet.
But it's been good talking about the bits and pieces. Most of it I am aware of, but the approach of percentage upon percentage is a very taxing skill assessment haha. But at least now I know why.
If you have one or 2 high skill colonists, you can often intercept the enemies or flank them with little to no danger for exactly those colonists. Works even better if you have melees with shield belts trying to dictate the movement of the enemies. Getting in shots before the enemy even has a chance to fight back is also pretty good, even if you don't hit super good on those range. It's still free shots.
The bolt action has a bit more dps and shoots faster and the range is lower. That can make it more reliably especially because the faster speed makes the stopping power better. It has less range than the sniper rifle, but if you feel you can't shoot at 40+ anyway, the bolt action is a nice alternative. It's also super cheap and fast to make, which also makes it able to get good quality quickly. It's still for high skill/high range, but a little less so than the sniper. Assault rifle is the best longer range dps/spray and pray weapon.
Bolt action rifles also outrange centipedes (and lancers), hit them well enough and are quick on cooldown so you can basically kite centipedes as long as you want. Just got to take care of the other mechs.