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Where's your rigorously-recorded data from a statistically-significant data set?
This post is not so different from every post everywhere on the Internet complaining about probability. It's just RNG.
Should just blow up the colony.
But yeah, there's a 20% chance of getting a negative outcome on most rituals. That makes multiple failures in a row very reasonable, if unlikely. ♥♥♥♥ happens.
RNG is what it is. Pray to Randy more.
But yeah, bad RNG happens. I'd make a save right before trying a celebration and reload a couple times to see if it's always the same. You ought to get a different result after a couple tries, all other things being identical.