Failed installing leg at 102% chance of success!?

[DrakenKin]

Dedicated hospital room, sterile floors, doc with 15 medicine skill.

If i click on the info on the bed, it shows 102% operation success rate. (Is there another way to see chance of success other than bed?)

It still failed, destroyed the synthetic leg, and the patient is near death. I used herbal medicine because i didn't have better, but i thought it would be ok since the bed was showing 102%.

What am i missing?

[ZS Maeklos]

That 102% isn't the success rate - that's the percentage of success for the operation. I.e., if the operation itself has a 90% success rate, that 102% makes it 91.8% (90 x 1.02). The actual success rate of the operation is dependent on the operation in question and the skill of the doctor. As a 'for example', my best doctor has a medical skill of 10. If you go into the info page and scroll down to the Work heading, you can see what the medical surgery success chance is. My doctor, with her 10 skill, has a base 90% surgery success chance.

[Markus Reese]

And some things like manipulation reduction factor into this as well. A doctor missing a thumb for example is a doctor you never want doing surgery.

[ZS Maeklos]

Originally posted by twistedmelon:

And some things like manipulation reduction factor into this as well. A doctor missing a thumb for example is a doctor you never want doing surgery.

Yeah, you've also got to watch recreational drug use, too, if you allow it. I've seen doctors (and usually the ones with the lowest medical skill, which makes me LOL) have a beer or smoke a joint before trying to do surgery on someone. That's usually immediate cause for them to be drafted and go stand in the corner for a day or so.

[Atrophus]

And even if you get to 100% success chance and above, there is always a minimum fail chance. Nothing better like loosing your favorite colonist when attaching a bionic leg after his old got ripped off, and your 5 star doctor impales his torso so hard with it his liver gets destroyed.

[Markus Reese]

Oh, and light. Light is a modifier to surgery success chance. It was a debate for a while, but sight is a modifier to surgery based on light level. Ideally surgery having 100% light making a sunlamp hospital beneficial.

[Paolini]

I remember how my skill 17 doktah did a leg prostetic operation and ended up cutting his damn head

[Markus Reese]

My best doctor was Mi'kayla the psychopath. Two power claws, back when they had reduced manipulation. Also wielded a minigun. That was good times! I had a backup doctor for if things did require a more delicate touch.

[DrakenKin]

Is there a way to see the final, actual chance of succeeding at say, extracting a liver or installing a leg?

[Astasia]

There are multiple different multipliers that take effect, there's the success chance on the colonist (check their stats), there's the success chance on the bed, there is the multiplier for medicine quality (herbals is like 70%), and there's the multiplier on the surgery (almost all surgeries are 1x, a few like the cancer removing one is like 0.7x or so). Once all of those are multiplied it is then capped at like 98%, so there will always be a chance to fail. The higher the the total success chance the lower the chance for more serious failures though.

[DrakenKin]

Originally posted by Astasia:

There are multiple different multipliers that take effect, there's the success chance on the colonist (check their stats), there's the success chance on the bed, there is the multiplier for medicine quality (herbals is like 70%), and there's the multiplier on the surgery (almost all surgeries are 1x, a few like the cancer removing one is like 0.7x or so). Once all of those are multiplied it is then capped at like 98%, so there will always be a chance to fail. The higher the the total success chance the lower the chance for more serious failures though.

Ok, that's a good reason to be able to see the final chance somewhere on the interface, no? Are we supposed to pick up a calculator and go through 7 excel sheets to see what we're doing?

[Astasia]

Originally posted by DrakenKin (twitch):

Ok, that's a good reason to be able to see the final chance somewhere on the interface, no? Are we supposed to pick up a calculator and go through 7 excel sheets to see what we're doing?

More like you are never meant to be certain and you are supposed to treat every surgery like a gamble. If you see a 98% success rate you think it's safe, and then it fails and you are like screw you xcom. So it doesn't show you anything, and you just cross your fingers and pucker up and hope you don't lose that archotech limb.

It might show exact success chance with dev mode on. There are a ton of stats in the game and dev mode keeps track of most of the ones that aren't normally presented to players.

[Jigain]

Originally posted by twistedmelon:

Oh, and light. Light is a modifier to surgery success chance. It was a debate for a while, but sight is a modifier to surgery based on light level. Ideally surgery having 100% light making a sunlamp hospital beneficial.

Having a tile being 100% lit (brightly lit; sunlamp) has no advantage over having a tile 50% lit (lit; any light source close enough) for pawn work, no matter what the pawns are doing at that tile.

[ZS Maeklos]

Originally posted by Astasia:

If you see a 98% success rate you think it's safe, and then it fails and you are like screw you xcom.

Jesus, that made me laugh so hard when I read it that I almost peed a little. I remember playing the original X-Com as a kid back in like '93, '94, and screaming that very thing at the computer.

[Markus Reese]

Originally posted by ZS Maeklos:

Originally posted by Astasia:

If you see a 98% success rate you think it's safe, and then it fails and you are like screw you xcom.

Jesus, that made me laugh so hard when I read it that I almost peed a little. I remember playing the original X-Com as a kid back in like '93, '94, and screaming that very thing at the computer.

I don't know why all or nothing hit probability still exists.... grr

[Atrophus]

Originally posted by DrakenKin (twitch):

Ok, that's a good reason to be able to see the final chance somewhere on the interface, no? Are we supposed to pick up a calculator and go through 7 excel sheets to see what we're doing?

Only two, and both ingame. Press the "i" info tab on your pawn and scroll down for his personal total chance, then check the info tab of your bed for the total chance there. Multiply both for the final chance (medical potency too if youre using herbal or glitter). If you hover over both you see the modifiers, so if it tells you the area is dirty, it makes sense to clean it first.