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This means items, structures and such.
I think colonists get counted since people have a price.
That's all I know
A bit of both.
Those points are based on several factors including time, storyteller difficulty, some randomness, incident type ect ect but the most important in general is wealth.
The wealth of everything you own in your colony, be it floors, weapons, Art, animals and yes, pawns. More pawns = higher wealth.
More pawns = more soldiers to shoot at whatever the incidents throw at you and handle them better in general, so it is a bit of a balance there.
What I can tell you is that having too many pawns without proper infrastructure and organization will increase difficulty of incidents without you being able to handle them better.
On the other hand, having majestic rooms, great infrastructure and wealthy throne rooms is great and all, but 5 highly trained and equipped soldiers still will struggle against 50-100 tribals.
So, to answer the question, yes more pawns can make the game more difficult, but only if you don't also make sure they are organized, equipped and trained well. Getting the balance right is a big part of Rimworld.
The difficulty of raids though, is always decided roughly by how many colonists you have, your tech level, and wealth level. Even when playing with randy.
- If you have a few colonists and low tech level, the raids will also only have a few people in them and will be pretty easy. The raiders will have clubs, knives or bad guns.
- If you have a lot of colonists, raids will also have more people in them, but weapons will mostly still be pretty bad.
- If your tech level gets higher, so does the tech level of the people raiding you. Their weapons improve, their tactics get better, etc.
- At the highest tech levels, quite difficult mechanoid raids start.
- And if your colony gets wealthier, raids seem to become more frequent as others try to steal your wealth.
In game, it makes sense: a small colony is less likely to draw attention and provoke large raids, a big colony is more likely to draw attention and to get attacked.
I almost always play with only one or two colonists, and i always notice that during most of the game, raids are very small consisting of only one or two colonists. Only as your tech level goes up, so do raids become more and more difficult and the number of raiders increases. But due to your tech it's then also easier to defeat them...
It all depends on what you choose to do and how you choose to play. The game is well balanced and quite fun. Rany random just throws some randomness into the mix.
And a bit more about Randy: He still does base his events off the same type of baseline as the other storytellers. His range for the randomness factor is a lot higher though in how good/bad an event is. He also I think either has no cooldowns on how frequently events of the same type (raides for instance) can occur or they're much, much shorter.
And like others said you colony value influences how hard those events are, but I think it does a diffculty multiplyer if you over the idea number as well forgot all the details people use to have all the data in alpha days. And there is mods to remove or tweak the soft cap
The exception might be dealing with disease events, those scale based on population and you will need a lot more meds for each disease event with larger colonies.
This is a popular bit of misinformation and also based on old beta numbers. There used to be a population critical value that people thought meant bad things would happen, but that's not what it meant. Once you get above a certain population the game mostly stops giving you free colonist join events, that's pretty much the only effect that has. Those numbers are also very different now and Randy pretty much ignores them.
It's likely due to your expansion increasing your colony wealth which in turn increases the potency of raids and subsequently combat/medical situations.
Also the raider unit types have a value for weapons and a value for outfits that they can buy equipment with. If I recall correctly these can increase when your wealth does to help keep weaker factions to be more on par with your technological advancements. If this is in fact the case then this would also be a big factor in this perception as the weapons are better and they would cause more severe injuries.
Oh and to answer the OPs question, yes but not in a linear way. Pawns have a value iirc, based on their stats, likely age and other variables. Then there is the equipment you need to make for them, when these add up across multiple pawns, it can contribute to wealth increase (depending on your base and your gear, it could be substantial or minuscule comparatively). Which is the seemingly main factor in determining raids and possibly events (not sure on events, but raids is a for sure).
Is this correlation linear? Or is there an asymptotic approximation?
Same question for the time. Linear? Threshold?
EDIT: Just read the answer by Transflux. Thx. So not linear then.
The question about approximation remains. I'm just curious. :)
As long as your infrastructure can support new pawns without issues (mood, food, space okay) then they basically always increase your chances in raids, not decrease.
But RNG is RNG and rimworld can royally screw you the moment you think you got everything well under control ^^