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It's calculating the return trip as well so a min of 18 to 20 days at 2 meals a day plus big animal eaters. Is it animal grazing time ?
I made a 3 day trip ( + 3 day return) with their proposed set up, got back with very little to spare.
Going back to OPs question. I would double check to make sure nobody has meal plan assigned to them that would restrict survival meals cause the estimated time until food runs out is based off of when the first pawn has to miss a meal and the will follow meal plans even on the road.
Because you are bringing hay and kibble I am assuming that there is no grazing and foraging in your area either due to the biome or time of year. your animals each eat 38 hay/kibble per day for a total of 190 kibble/hay per day for all of them. With only 500 hay you run out of animal feed after about two and a half days. After that point they eat 2 meals a day (technically only need one and a half meals but there is no such thing as a half meal so 2 get eaten). In those 2.5 days about 5 meals leaving 93 meals that will now be eaten at 12 a day (2 colonist at 1 a day and 5 animals at 2 a day) this will be 7.75 days worth left making 10.25 days of food plus a bit more from the pemmican. My math may be a bit off as I did a lot of rounding but it was all in the same direction so the actual amount of time is likely higher by a day.
Honestly for 9 days round trip that to me feels like it is cutting it close as any injuries that would slow you down or even picking up some cargo could push you past that mark. I would double check everyone's meal plans and traits to make sure they can eat what you are packing. If the ETA of starvation is still the same after that then I would assume it is a bug with the new auto caravan planing
I must revisit this save and see if they starve on the way.