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It's definitely possible to keep recruiting past the hard cap, if you're super-determined and very proactive re: colonist safety, but I'm not sure how much fun it would be ^^'. There are also mods (or simple manual XML changes, if you prefer) to change these caps as you like. Performance WILL suffer with many colonies/colonists!
Notably, there's also a mod to add "Z-levels" (of a sort) to RW called "DeepRim" (sorry, Ludeon link only):
https://ludeon.com/forums/index.php?topic=39262.0
As I mentioned, it's definitely possible to exceed the "hard" cap, even with vanilla, unmodified settings, if you're determined enough, watch your pawns like a hawk – to avoid "downed" pawns, the biggest risk when over the hard cap – and constantly recruit every warm body you can. Recruitment chances (at least with a skilled Warden) don't generally quite drop to 0, just very low, so having lots of prisoners and more than one Warden can help a lot; you're simply rolling the dice far more often.
Sure *shrug* but ya know, not only did I just describe how it's been represented by the dev, you can change the numbers and check for yourself. Edge cases like ONE colonist (or 1000) aren't great tests; the system wasn't really expecting that as an input, not surprising it can get a little wonky. I'm pretty sure -1 is gonna be an issue too ^^'. Remember, it's a weighted, semirandom function.
Remember also, this behavior changes between Storytellers quite a bit, and can be completely unpredictable when using modded Storytellers.
As a side note, I typically end up with 50+ pawns before calling a save quits because of boredom. That's on Cass, who has an "critical" cap of 18 pawns. And even at that point the main cause of deaths is not the game rolling dice against me, it's just my own stupidity for not keeping on top of things in critical situations.