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4/9 times import export was the first heist
3/9 times the dogs were the first heist
1/9 times the hidden vault was the first heist
1/9 times the money train was the first heist
for me the money train and the hidden vault typically come up after day 7 and the dogs and import/export have never come up after day 4
the 2 times vault and train came up as my first heist neither import nor dogs would show up at all
a character needs 2 missions to level up right? so by day 3 only the boss could have gotten 2 level ups, by day 4 only characters you spawned with could have gotten 2 level ups
one run where I had the dragon dogs as my first heist the setup mission was day 2 and the night from day 2 to 3 gloves told me about khans drug import being investigated by the sheriff
so day 3 I had both the setup mission for import export as well as the continuation of the dragon dogs
so the game can give you another big heist goal before you finished the previous one
Some of the assets cost over 4 million dollars which mostly means you'll need to do at the very minimum two big heists alongside several minor ones to amass such a mass of money before the sheriff inevitably busts your ass.
from my experience, the heists unlock over time as you level up your boss level with cagnali being the last one. the first time you get a new big heist it tends to spam it again and again until you beat it. (but also i regularly beat money train early on extreme, its one of the easiest heist unless you never play loud, the areas are very easy to clear out and navigate, its literally the only big heist i've never failed because its that easy).
and you do have access to strong gear, the urban striker and blue practicals spawn day 1. get those and just win, if you can aim pick literally any guns and you can do it on extreme difficulty without much issue.
Edit to add, I'm currently on day 22 of an extreme run with money train lined up, a day 22 money train concerns me alot more than a day 1 money train. One of them is perfectly safe and the other one i may end my run if i doze mid heist.
after day 10 its easy to make a million a day off of small heists. by day 15 you are making well over a million a day. you never have to do a single big heist to afford anything, and since big heists are usually what end runs if you're going for big money its in your best interest to do as few as possible if you are going for raw money in a run. In my current campaign on day 22 I'm still making about a million a day unless i get unlucky with heist spawns... the low end is 800k a day... which is still fine (i've actually done 4 big heists in this run but i'm just saying the small heists make more money than you can ever spend at that point even with the increase of cost of everything).
When you start 3 Badges,
When you have bagged enough loot, it automatically goes up to 4 badges
After you set the smoke screen, it peaks at 5 badges.
So... a tip is to bag as much as you can, and firght you way through the cops, but once you reach the smoke screen device, DO NOT SET OFF THE SMOKE. Tell your bots to stand still a small distance away and dump all the bags next to the smoke screen device. Make sure the bots aren't too close or they will defy your orders of standing the ♥♥♥♥ still and pick up the bags.
Then you run back to the rain station and pick up more bags, rinse and repeat. By not activatign the smoke, the cop spawns won't be anywhere near as severe because of how different th ehat level is on this heist. THere'll still be cops, but they're in geenral quite managable. Will eat up time, though.
Or ♥♥♥♥ it, just get the minimal loot and pay off Hielo to leave, I dunno. Still the worst Big Heist in the game. To think it has two versions. One that starts with a Rin gheist, and one where you needf to hit 3 armored trucks first.