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Are you maybe... I dunno mate. Going into a low risk mission on max heat? Y'know that resets every day and goes up if you do other missions... or say, capture territory missions... right?
Nah, that's determined by your base difficulty (notoriety level + heat). As a general rule, how inherently difficult a mission is likely to be can be guessed at by the payout - a mall robbery at level 1 with a 15 - 20k payout will generally have less guards (and usually just low quality security), cameras and civilians than the same job at level 3 paying out 120 - 130k irrespective of risk level or icon, which will include more camera's, guards and civilians and is more likely to have a few cops wandering around to boot (plus of course, more loot requiring bagging and humping to the van).
Yep, each time your heat goes up you'll probably notice the icon starts stacking; means the mission is becoming more difficult (generally more guards, though also note the initial level of police response is set by your heat too). As a general rule if you particularly need a heist to succeed it's always better to make it the first thing you do that day than leaving it until the end.
E.g. in case of 'break the bank' with 'low risk' you may end up in a more favorable starting position. But there's still a chance you're going to end up starting on the roof while being assaulted by SWAT.
risk is just chance for random event to happening during the mission