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*** EDIT: I do not have the witcher 3 on Steam. I have it on GoG (30hrs).
So it really depends on how interested you are in the world of the witcher.
- If you're itching to jump right into it (see a massive world, test out your PC on a new game, etc), the witcher 3 covers the past story decently. You will encounter various characters from the previous games, but most of them have dialogue options that brings you up to speed (you also have a character glossary).
- Furthermore, there is a point in the game (within the first 5-8hrs) that lets you make choices from the witcher 2 that defines certain aspects of the witcher 3. You will probably be confused with who is involved, what was happening, etc. However, in my opinion you can make the choices that 'saves' most of their lives so that you can possibly meet these characters in the world, which I believe makes the game more interesting (if you don't plan to play witcher 2).
- Witcher 3 is a massive game. It pretty much combines the best elements of the witcher 1 and 2. Furthermore, there are a lot of resources in the game (books, glossary, dialogue) that can quickly immerse you into the story.
However, if you really want to see how everything unfolds (with patience) I'd recommend playing the witcher 1 and 2.
- Witcher 1 is quite dated. As you said, the combat is super straightforward with the exception of the signs. However, if you dig fantasy environments the story really draws you in. The story starts you off at the beginning of Geralt's 'amnesia', which is important throughout the 1st and 2nd game. Furthermore, it introduces you to the world of witcher ... all grey not black/white. Though a bit old, the game really has a lot of choices that have immediate and long term consequences. It has a slow start, but it picks up over time. I don't want to give away spoilers, so I can't say much except that Geralt meets a few characters you'll see throughout the games. ~40hrs of gameplay with main quest, most side quests
- Witcher 2 is still very enjoyable. The combat is fleshed out, graphics are great, and the interactions are expanded upon. The world is a bit more 'linear' but nonetheless the story keeps up an excellent pace. Unlike the first game, the story is explosive from the start. You'll be a bit confused, but it all sinks in soon. Hell, at one point you make a decision that alters how you play an entire ACT (10+ hrs) in the game. The game hits closer to the witcher 3 since the events that take place in the world prepare you for the setting for the witcher 3. ~40hrs of gameplay with main quest, most side quests
TLDR:
- Play the witcher 1 if you want the full story. Combat doesn't get better, but the story picks up over time and is interesting by itself. Besides the major characters, the story here doesn't have much of an influence on the witcher 3.
- Play the witcher 2 if you want most of the story. Combat is fun, graphics are nice, and the majority of the characters + events here have a direct impact on the witcher 3.
- Play the witcher 3 if you don't really love the world, but want an new, immerse fantasy experience. You will be quite confused with who is who, what happened, what am I doing, etc but with the in-game resources + dialogues you will understand it.
Whatever your choice, I'm sure you will have fun. If you're worried about the time commitment, just start the witcher 3. You might even find yourself wanting more, thus going back to play the witcher 1 and 2.
- Witcher 1 is basic. That doesn't change. Bombs, oils, potions add some flavour but if you're playing on a normal difficulty it isn't necessary.
- Witcher 2 is more advanced. Sword play involves two different attacks without the 'quick-time event esq icons', thus it is more fluid. Furthermore, you can side step and roll. I cannot remember if there is a parry. The character upgrade tree is quite good (Magic, Alchemy, Combat). I actually played my whole game with a focus in alchemy, since there were some great buffs it offered. You must prep for a fight before combat (oils, potions etc)
- Witcher 3 is kinda the best of both worlds. Combat is furthered enhanced with a parry + expansions on the magic. The movements are fluid too. You have a ranged weapon too. Prep isn't as demanding, since besides oils you can change inventory at anytime (bombs, potions).
* I must say, all three games can be challenging at the higher difficulties. There is some mastery to it (not dark souls level, but beyond skyrim/shadows of mordor).
W2 improves upon W1 in almost every way except openness. it's much more linear and there are less quests. the stances are also gone and combat is much better, but it's obvious they're still experimenting. and for a RPG, it's rather short (you should beat it in 25 or so hours). W3 combat is basically a more responsive version of W2's.
personally, if you're struggling through W1 i'd stop and watch a youtube recap, then play W2.
2nd one is still good though.