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The AI NEVER targets the player just because he is the player, so no, they don't hivemind you. When they target the player, there's always an unrelated reason (ex: you're winning). They also don't pick all the same luxury and you don't need to be psychic to know what they will vote. Just open the global resources list, see which luxury is at the bottom, anyone who doesn't own it will vote on that luxury. Others will vote on the next luxury from bottom to top that they don't own. The AI vote to ban the luxury that has the most total copies in the world. I'm not psychic and I can predict the outcome of this resolution 100% of the time, just show the Global Resources screen to me, I'll tell you how the vote will go.
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OP, it's the opposite, you're better off if you spend your favors at will in the congress. Don't save it for later. The diplo vote is virtually unwinnable the first time it shows up, so saving favors for it is a fool's errand. You need to do your best to guarantee pre-modern congress points. You get 4 pre-modern congresses on deity, 5-6 on other difficulties. That's 8 points on deity, 10-12 points on other difficulties. That's how you win, not the diplo vote. The diplo vote is meant to stop you from winning, to let Civs that are behind catch up with you.
The AI has a pattern to how they vote, and they are pretty consistent. You can predict most of the congress resolutions. The AI will always vote on what they “think” that benefits them, so there’s no way to buy them into voting for you. Same as you, they vote for themselves. Firaxis did it like that so the diplo victory wouldn’t turn into an economic victory, like in Civ V. You can’t buy your way to victory. Favors indirectly represent the “support” of city-states and allies. You get favors per turn when you become suzerain of a CS and when you make an alliance, indirectly representing support. So you influence the congress with favors. You can also try to manipulate the parameters that guide the AI to vote, but that isn’t easy to pull off nor a practical strategy. So, basically it’s all about figuring out the AI reasoning in the congress, their bias, and getting as much favors as you can, not for the diplo vote, but to use on each congress.
I wrote a thread on Civfanatics about alliances in the diplo victory that I’ll link below. You will find a spreadsheet tere with the AI bias in the congress that I figured out so far, and some theories on the ones I didn’t. There’s also some good tips there:
https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/the-advantages-of-alliances-in-a-diplomatic-victory.653949/
Once you get to the modern era, which will trigger the diplo vote in the next congress, instead of trying to win it, vote for you to lose points. Just like a normal resolution, the diplo vote gives you a point if you vote on the winning option/target. Since the AI will all vote against the winner (you), voting against yourself will give you a point. Then use your favors to win the normal resolutions, same as you should be doing on pre-modern congresses. That will give you 3 points total, then you lose 3 points from the diplo vote, meaning that you can even out the congress and come out of it with the same amount of points that you came in. It’s crucial to do that, so you don’t actually lose points. The AI will dump all its favors on this first congress, so in the next congresses you have a real chance to win the diplo vote. That’s plan C though. If you do everything right, you can win long before that, even earlier if you get luck with aid requests.
Because of how the points are applied in the congress, to win, you just need to get to a modern congress with at least 18 points, then even out the congress. If you do that, the game will add the points you won first, trigger the victory, and only then subtract the points you lost. You can get 7 points from wonders, 2 in the tech/civic trees, 8 in the first 4 congresses, to a total of 17. So all you need is one aid request before the fifth congress to win on it (around turn 205, standard speed). That’s Plan A. If you miss too many points or just don’t get the Aid request, then you rely on getting more aid requests, which is luck based, and winning scored competitions, which is quite slow. That’s Plan B. You don’t want to rely on Plan B. Here comes the already mentioned Plan C, winning the Diplo vote after the first modern congress. Only at this point you want to hoard favors, and even then you can’t afford to just ignore the normal resolutions. You can’t go all in on the diplo vote. You can get a total of 5 points in the congress if you win the diplo vote, so you can still win in the sixth (deity) or seventh congress, even if you have only 15 points by then. Do the math before you compromise. Be sure you can outvote the AI.
A few tips:
- Early exploration is crucial. You want to meet every Civ before the first congress, by the end of the classical era. If you didn’t meet every Civ, the resolutions can get hard to predict or even impossible to win. You also want to meet every City-State ASAP, so you can start doing quests and getting envoys. Getting as many envoys as you can is fundamental;
- Culture is king. You want to progress fast in the civics tree, to get better governments, unlock the diplo point in the cultural tree and the late game stuff that gives favors. You also want to adopt the International Space Agency policy ASAP (+5% science per city state you’re suzerain), to boost your science and get the tech tree point;
- You need a religion, since it’s a requirement for the Mahabodhi Temple (2 diplo points). Once you get one, you will get CS quests to spread your religion. Adopt the Religious Unity belief to boost your envoys (+1 Envoy at each city-state when it first adopts this religion);
- Aside from early game, where you might want to avoid wars, friendships are useless. You can’t declare war on a friend, so if they conquer a CS, you won’t be able to do anything about it. Don’t declare friendships. Choose your 5 alliances wisely, then deny friendship to everyone else. If you’re playing with only a few Civs, you might even consider not getting all 5 alliances. You want as many suzerainty City-states as you can. Liberating and protecting CSs is crucial;
- Be sure to have a healthy economy, so you can win aid requests easily.
I doubt there's any mod that change it drastically, but I don't expect this to be the final version of the congress/diplo victory. There's more patches and DLC/Expansion coming, I expect them to change how this works substantially, mainly the diplo victory. They been getting a lot of feedback on that.
On a side note dose anyone know why you can't allways trade for 'gold per turn' with other Civs?
What DLC? Did you see an announcement? My assumption is that Civ VI is done and over.
They're working on a DLC or Expansion. We're following their updates on steamdb. You can keep an eye on the civfanatics thread I'll link below to get updates and see our speculation (and jokes), or keep an eye on steamdb yourself.
Thread:
https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/future-update.649590/page-208#post-15710462
Civ VI's steamdb:
https://steamdb.info/app/289070/depots/
This is just a tread speculating since last September. There's no announcement of any kind. I speculate there will be another patch and done.
There's 2 depots that are for DLC. We're not speculating on that, we KNOW there's a DLC coming, we just don't know what it is (minor DLCs, expansion or something else) and when it will be announced.