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That said, after a few hours of warmongering last night, I got 6 ai civs all declare war on me and send monster armies which took out 4 of my cities before I could even react, 3 of which were destroyed. So ai is good enough for me atm.
For Rise & Fall, we can hope that the new mechanics and stuff happen to be laid out in a way that it's easy for the AI to benefit from it. Of course, chances are that it will be the opposite.
But yeah, AI improvements will come little by little in patches, not fixed in an expansion.
They talked about improvements they did to make sure the AI can use the new systems, specifically loyalty and forward settling. So far it seems a lot better, the AI seems to understand that they need to keep their cities close to each other, they don't seem to settle cities where they will start to lose it to loyalty as soon as they settle. They conquer cities that they will lose to loyalty though, CSs to be more specific.
There's hours of R&F gameplay on youtube, both from dev livestream and people playing it. You can see how the AI behave, it's not like Firaxis is hiding it. So far it seems like another step forward but still a long way to go.
Nobody is saying much about the end game, since the media demo went only 150 turns. There are new endgame rules that hopefully will mitigate runaway civs. Might make things better, might make things worse, since I don't see much improvement on how the AI choses to move units.
As for modders, yes, that would be the game's only hope but only if they open up the capability to mod the AI. I dabbled in modding this game for the AI and found it completely useless. They allow you to tweak a handful of XML statements for it and that's about it. It's a joke. They need to open up the DLL. Until then don't hope for a good AI mod (and YES I tried both of the ones out there and they don't do much).
Personally the one thing (of many) that the AI kept doing that made me shelf the game was
1) Declare a war, early game, not having much of an army to use
2) After 10 turns, when neither it or me attack each other.
3) Ask for peace AND give me a bunch of resources for free!!!
The stupid thing did this every game I played. I haven't played since.
CAN THEY FOR THE LOVE OF GOD AT LEAST FIX THIS RIDICULOUS DIPLOMACY BUG!??
For one thing, it's a basic tradeoff. The more a game adds multiple interlocking systems with interesting consequential decisions, the less effectively the AI is going to play the game. Certainly not within any reasonable budget. And multiply this many times over if the game systems keep changing, which most players definitely want.
Second, the most egregious AI problems involve military tactics, and as best as I can see, the developers have made this primarily a grand strategy game about building a civilization over the centuries, as opposed to a military strategy game. There are games out there that do military conflict very well, and they do it by focusing the game on that. Civ is not that game. You can disagree with their decision, but it would probably be more productive to go find a good wargame to scratch that itch.
That said, for those who (accurately) look at this as primarily a builder game yet are haunted by the ease of breaking the game simply by going war-monger... I think that the new loyalty system combined with improved alliances will go some distance to paper over that problem. The improved alliances are going to benefit civs who pay attention to diplomacy; doesn't mean you can't take some cities from a neighbor, but if you are a serial attacker, you are going to miss out on benefits from higher level alliances. And if you have more conquered cities than governors, low loyalty is going to give you headaches. Thus, the fact that you could, in theory, take away any particular city through warfare becomes less the elephant in the room.
And if this just doesn't cut it for you, you might want to wait for a while until the day they release the tools for modders to make substantial improvements to the AI, as they did in the past.
Preordered the deluxe version and the expansion. So I do not regret ;-)