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A good way to tell is his marker indicator.
When someone gives up, their marker turns to gray,
when they are plotting to get their knife, their marker will remain red.
You have enough time to CQC them down before they reach for their knife though, just stay alert and don't assume you're safe because you held them up.
Also, heavy armored enemies are less likely to surrender (obvious because their armor can take the shot for them).
And lastly, enemies that are face on the floor will never try anything funny (being on the floor really reduces the chances a person has to counter attack someone)
He either throws the guy or stops punching and show is own weapon.
Don't forget that you may have to aim afterward, though; sometimes the game puts you and the guy you took the gun off of far enough part that it won't register as a hold up unless you swing the barrel a little to the right.
See, if you immediatly hit LB and check the radio commands, the two orders you can give to guards you hold up only show up if they'll comply. IF you're holding him up, and those two options do not appear, he will go for his knife.
This is the best and fastest method. However I have no idea if there is a giveaway before hand. Like one already said it's probably their rank.