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The butterfly emblem thing is true; it will prevent her from leaving but also won't allow certain story part leading up to her departure to happen in the first place.
Mission 41, while not strictly speaking storyline-related, seems to be the starting point of it all.
A guide claims that once you finish this mission, certain things happen and after 3 or so extra missions, you will get notified that she left.
TL;DR if you want to keep her, use the butterfly emblem. You can also add "sniper" and "quiet" words to the emblem to be sure, since I heard that may or may not be a requirement too.
But if you still want to back the savegame up, do so before launching M41.
Mission 11 [reunion] Cloaked in Silence